Stat of the Day, 26th August 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.50 Cartmel : River Icon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Chased leaders, took keen hold, ridden and stayed on same pace)

Bank Holiday Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.00 Cartmel :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Justatenner @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good to Soft ground worth £15,640 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner here LTO, five weeks ago, when partnered by today’s jockey, Harry Reed, winning relatively comfortably despite Harry losing his whip on the run in. After that result and with today’s race in mind, this horse’s record in handicap hurdle contests now includes…

  • 4 wins, 6 places from 15 in a hood
  • 4 wins, 5 places from 14 with Harry in the saddle
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 10 from June to September
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 here at Cartmel
  • 1 from 1 over course and distance

His trainer, Tristan Davidson, isn’t possibly the most well known, but he is interestingly/surprisingly profitable to follow blindly at odds shorter than 8/1 with 27 winners from 100 (27% SR) for 24.65pts (+24.65% ROI), whilst if you’d backed every single one of his hurdlers since the start of last year, you’d have had 13 winners from 44 (29.6% SR) and made yourself 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 98%, including…

  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 46.25pts (+121.7%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  • 11/36 (30.6%) for 38.7pts (+107.5%) from male runners
  • 11/27 (40.7%) for 37.1pts (+137.3%) at odds of 7/4 to 9/1
  • 11/21 (52.4%) for 55pts (+261.9%) from March to September
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 49.5pts (+274.7%) after 26-75 days since their last run
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 33.6pts (+480.3%) here at Cartmel
  • and 2 from 2 (100%) for 10.43pts (+521.5%) over this trip…

…whilst Harry Reed + males at 7/4 to 9/1 from March to September = 8 wins and 3 places from 12 with the 66.6% win strike rate generating 28.56pts profit at an ROI of some 238%!

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Justatenner @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor respectively at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.00 Cartmel

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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