Stat of the Day, 27th August 2019

Bank Holiday Monday’s pick was…

5.00 Cartmel : Justatenner @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Held up in rear, headway after 2 out, driven to chase leaders when not fluent last, soon ridden, stayed on into 2nd flat, no impression with winner)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.20 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Swift Approval @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning

…in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good/Good to Firm ground worth £7,116 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr ld gelding has won two of his last three starts, including an LTO win in a similar Class 4, 7f handicap at Sandown 19 days ago. That took his record over 7f to 7 wins and 6 places from 26 attempts, including wins on Soft (x2), Good to Soft (x1), Good (x2) and Good to Firm (x2), so I don’t expect the ground or trip to be an issue today and as he’s 3/11 at Classes 2/3, he shouldn’t be outclassed here either.

He’s got Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and Andrea has a good record on this quirky track, whilst his trainer Stuart Williams is 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 49.6pts (+154.9% ROI) over the past fortnight, so he’s got his string in good nick.

More long-term, ie since 2010 however, his runners sent off at odds of 11/10 to 9/1 at the same class and distance as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 15 from 53 (28.3% SR) for 19.1pts (+36% ROI), with the following angles at play today…

  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 26.14pts (+60.8%) over 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 20.64pts (+48%) from male runners
  • 11/38 (28.9%) for 20.03pts (+52.7%) at 11-25 dslr
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 15.6pts (+67.8%) at Class 4/5
  • 7/28 (25%) for 4.83pts (+17.25%) since 2016
  • and 7/24 (29.2%) for 22.37pts (+93.2%) from 5-8 yr olds…

…from which, males racing over 5-7f at 11-25 dslr are 9/25 (36% SR) for 24.6pts (+98.4% ROI) ie 128.8% of the original profit from just 47.1% of the runners!

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 9/2 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday (Only Bet365 had opened on a BOG basis and they were a point shorter). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.20 Epsom

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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