Stat of the Day, 28th August 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.20 Epsom : Swift Approval @ 9/2 6th at 9/2 (Chased leaders, lost place over 3f out, driven over 2f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.25 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm/Good ground worth £4,075 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner last time out 23 days, when scoring at this class/trip at Carlisle and although up 5lbs for that win, the booking of jockey Harrison Shaw negates that rise, not that Harrison is an inferior replacement : he’s already 3/13 at this venue this season and has ridden 2 winners from 8 for today’s trainer Eric Alston (more on him shortly) this season.

The horse looks to have favourable conditions today, as his career record includes…

  • 5 wins, 5 places from 22 in a hood
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 16 in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 6 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Catterick
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 over 6f
  • and 1 win plus 1 pace from 2 efforts over course and distance

Trainer Eric Alston is 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 36.74pts (+193.3% ROI) with handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter here at Catterick over the last three seasons, whilst during that same time period his overall record with LTO winners stands at 9/44 (20.5% SR) for 40.87pts (+92.9% ROI), including of note/relevance today….

  • 9/42 (21.4%) for 42.87pts (+102.1%) in handicaps
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 43.66pts (+121.3%) on the Flat
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 60.01pts (+285.8%) in fields of 11-17 runners
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 43.12pts (+126.8%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 7/34 (20.6%) for 14.33pts (+42.2%) within 25 days of the last run/win
  • 6/25 (24%) for 12.8pts (+51.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 23.59pts (+138.8%) from August to November
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.71pts (+113.2%) from previous C&D winners
  • 3/12 (25%) for 12.33pts (+102.7%) at Class 5
  • 3/10 (30%) for 20.48pts (+204.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 12pts (+300%) here at Catterick…

…whilst those competing in 11-17 runner Flat handicaps at the same class or one higher over the same trip or up 1f as an LTO win in the previous 25 days are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 30.27pts (+336.3% ROI) including Redrosezorro‘s own course and distance success in April 2018…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.35pm on Tuesday (Although non-BOG until morning Hills were a full point bigger). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.25 Catterick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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