Stat of the Day, 29th August 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

5.25 Catterick : Redrosezorro @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Attempted to make all, decent lead eroded inside final furlong)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.10 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m1f on Good ground worth £4,205 to the winner…

Why?…

This 3 yr old filly has 3 wins and a place from her 6 starts in Flat handicaps and comes here on a hat-trick after back-to-back staying-on wins over a mile at Leicester, the latest coming 18 days ago.

Today’s jockey Sam James has been in the saddle for all six starts with 3 wins and a place from 4 on undulating tracks and 2 wins plus a place from 3 runs going right handed like today.

Trainer Grant Tuer is in decent form too with 5/19 over the last 30 days, 2/7 in the past fortnight and 1 from 4 this week, mostly ridden by Sam James, whilst blindly backing all Grant’s Class 4-6 handicappers at 16/1 and shorter has proved profitable in recent years with 22 winners from 147 (15% SR) since the start of 2016 generating profits of 51.5pts at an ROI of 35%, including of relevance here…

• 21/126 (16.7%) for 53.5pts (+42.5%) at 6-60 dslr
• 21/110 (19.1%) for 84.3pts (+76.6%) from March to August
• 10/38 (26.3%) for 31.8pts (+83.7%) with Sam James in the saddle
• 9/54 (16.7%) for 24.6pts (+45.5%) with female runners
• 8/28 (28.6%) for 51.2pts (+182.8%) over trips of 9-12 furlongs
• 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.7pts (+135.8%) from 3 yr olds
• 7/14 (50%) for 45.4pts (+324.6%) in 3 yo races
• and 5/21 (23.8%) for 3.9pts (+18.5%) from LTO winners…

…whilst Sam James + March-August on runners rested for 6-60 days = 10/27 (37% SR) for 42.8pts (+158.6% ROI), including 6/10 (60%) with females, 5/10 (50%) with 3 yr olds, 5/8 (62.5%) in 3 yo only races and 3/6 (50%) with LTO winners…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG as offered by SkyBet & Hills at 5.35pm on Wednesday with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!