Stat of the Day, 30th August 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

3.10 Carlisle : Kermouster @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, going well and looking for room inside final 2f, went 2nd over 1f out, sustained run to lead towards finish, all out to win by a short head)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £4,399 to the winner…

Why?

Going to keep it pretty simple today with a 3 yr old filly who has been running consistently well for the last year or so, clocking up 3 wins and 4 placed finishes from her last 10 starts with a record of 511 this season, culminating in a course and distance win here in a big-field (14 ran) similar Class 5, 1m handicap almost four weeks ago.

Her career tally now includes (with today’s conditions in mind,of course)…

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 after less than 30 days rest
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 7 during July-September
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 over a 1m trip
  • 2 wins from 3 in handicaps
  • a win and a place from two previous runs here at Thirsk, both over course and distance
  • and a win and apace from two efforts on Good to Soft ground

In addition to her apparent suitability above, trainer John (JJ) Quinn’s LTO winners are 36 from 165 (21.8% SR) for 119.7pts (+72.6% ROI) on the Flat over the last five seasons, including…

  • 29/118 (24.6%) for 129pts (+109.4%) at 11-60 dslr
  • 26/114 (22.8%) for 104pts (+91.3%) over 5f to 1m
  • 21/91 (23.1%) for 89pts (+97.8%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 9/31 (29%) for 23.8pts (+76.7%) in 3 yr old races

…whilst those LTO winners racing over 5f to 1m within 1f of the last trip they tackled after 11-60 days rest are 20 from 81 (24.7% SR) for 105.5pts (+130.2% ROI)

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 9.10pm on Thursday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.15 Thirsk

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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