Stat of the Day, 31st August 2019

Friday’s pick was…

5.15 Thirsk : My Ukulele @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Held up, pushed along 3f out, ridden over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.10 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG

…in an 11-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £28,012 to the winner…

Why?

Top weight drawn wide (stall 6) over 7.5f at Chester just a week after finishing down the field at Goodwood? Surely not, I hear some cry.

Yes, he was 9th of 12 a week ago, but was unlucky in not getting a run and was still only beaten by two lengths in a bit of a scrambled finish. And if we look at this very race last year, Oh This Is Us was drawn out in stall 9 conceding weight all round, a week after finishing 6th of 8, beaten by 2.5 lengths at Goodwood, yet managed to win quite cosily in the end off a mark 3lbs higher than today.

His career record stands at 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 34.14pts (+75.9% ROI), from which the following are relevant today…

  • 11 wins, 7 places from 39 over 7-8 furlongs
  • 8 wins, 5 places from 20 at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 8 wins, 3 places from 18 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 6 places from 18 going left handed
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 18 at Class 2
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 23 off a mark of 101-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 15 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from three here at Chester
  • 2 wins from within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 over 7.5f (C&D in this race last year)

His trainer Richard Hannon is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 12.91pts (+58.7% ROI) here on the Roodee over the past two seasons, including of note/relevance today…

  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.91pts (+217.4%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 6.51pts (+40.7%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 8.51pts (+60.8%) with horses unplaced last time out
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 13.33pts (+78.4%) on Good ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.14pts (+201.9%) at Class 2
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.18pts (+157%) for prizes worth £20-30k

…from which those sent off shorter than 6/1 within a fortnight of being unplaced LTO are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 14.51pts (+181.4% ROI), including Oh This Is Us’ two wins and a place from three visits here…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 6.20pm on Friday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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