Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.10 Chester : Oh This Is Us @ 7/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along and headway on outside well over 1f out, hard ridden and ran on well to lead close home to win by half a length)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.40 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Good ground worth £6,108 to the winner…

Why?…

When I was going through my various saved micro-systems and the Geegeez report suite to formulate my shortlist of horses for today, the name Melody of Scotland kept on cropping up. Obviously that’s not enough to make any horse a selection for SotD : they then have to be within my personal price criteria and also have what I’d deem a decent chance of winning, but it does warrant them getting a closer look.

I think this 5 yr old mare has at least a fighting chance based on 2 wins and a runner-up finish from her last four outings, finishing second last time out 11 days ago over a shorter trip on ground I think was too quick for her (I backed her then, but before the track dried out!). Back up to 2m4f on a track/trip she knows and on slower ground (although still good ground), I think she can go one better.

Stat-wise, she does crop up one multiple angles, so I’m going to keep it brief and not do my usual long-winded mining of the data!

1. She’s already 2 from 2 here at Hexham, both in a visor and both under today’s jockey Richie McLernon, including one over Course and Distance.
2. Trainer Ben Haslam’s handicappers sent off at odds fo 9/4 to 8/1 (I’m sure we’ll be here) within 14 days of a top 3 finish LTO are 9/26 (34.6% SR) for 23.4pts (+90% ROI) during 2016-19.
3. Since the start of 2018, Ben’s hurdlers are 10/39 (25.6% SR) for 52.2pts (+133.8% ROI), including 8 from 27 (29.6%) for 49.1pts (181.7%) over 2m to 2m4f
4. Since 2016, Ben’s record here at Hexham stands at 8 from 30 (26.7% SR) for 56.1pts (+187.1% ROI), including 3/9 (33.3%) for 16pts (+177.2%) in handicap hurdle contests
5. And since 2016, Ben’s Summer Hurdlers, as I call them (sub-12/1 handicappers in May-September) are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 25.7pts (+143% ROI) including 3/7 (42.9%) for 18pts (+256.4%) this year alone

And all that’s before you consider how well the trainer/jockey partnership has fared in the last month/year and also their joint record here at this venue, but I’m sure you’ve got the picture…

…enabling you to place… a 1pt win bet on Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.55pm on Sunday.. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.40 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!