Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2019

Monday’s pick was…

5.40 Hexham : Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, left 2nd 6th, led last, driven flat, headed towards finish and beaten by a neck)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

7.30 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,738 to the winner…

Why?

This 3yr old gelding is on a run of 6 defeats since winning off a mark of 73 last November and now runs off his lowest handicap mark to date at 69, which all sound a little uninspiring, but…

1. He is going to be ridden by Jim Crowley for the first time today and Jim is in sparkling form, winning 9 of 28 (32.1% SR) over the past fortnight and 4 of 11 (36.4% SR) over the last week.

2. His trainer, Ian Williams’s record in handicaps here at Salisbury over the last five seasons stands at 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 21.6pts (+127.2% ROI) with runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter, from which…

  • males are 7/14 (50%) for 22.2pts (+158.7%)
  • those running on good to firm are 4/8 (50%) for 9.35pts (+116.8%)
  • Class 5 runners are 3/6 (50%) for 10.6pts (+176.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 2.96pts (+49.3%)
  • and over this 1m6f C&D, they are 3/5 (60%) for 15.5pts (+310%)

3. Over the last three seasons, Ian’s 3 yr olds racing in 3yo+ handicaps over trips of 10f to 14f (and receiving a weight for age allowance) are 9/23 (39.1% SR) for 19.8pts (+86.2% ROI).

4. Also, in the same 3 season time window, his Class 5 handicappers racing off a mark lower than their last winning rating are 10 from 49 (20.4% SR) for 69.4pts (+141.5% ROI)

5. Whilst, finally for today, as Ian only has the one runner on show today, it’s worth noting that over those last three seasons, when represented on the day by just one runner, those horses are 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) for 13.9pts (+51.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 8/1 in a Flat handicap…

…which all points to… a 1pt win bet on War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.30 Salisbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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