Tuesday’s pick was…
7.30 Salisbury : War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace)
Wednesday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG
…in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Good ground worth £6,836 to the winner…
This 6 yr old gelding seems to have been rejuvenated since a switch to Ben Haslam’s yard, winning two of seven (all under today’s jockey Richie McLernon), including a win LTO, 9 days ago over 2m5f at Cartmel in another Class 3 contest.
In addition to that 2/7 record under today’ jockey, the horse is also 3/6 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, 2/4 at Class 3 and 2/4 in cheekpieces.
Both trainer and jockey are in good form too with Richie riding 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the past fortnight, Ben saddling up 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) n the same period, whilst together they are 3 from 8 (37.5% SR).
Their joint success isn’t just a purple patch, though, as since the start of 2018, they are 17 from 73 (23.3% SR) for 104.4pts (+143% ROI) together, from which they are…
- 15/53 (28.3%) for 95.1pts (+179.4%) over 2m to 2m5f
- 11/43 (25.6%) for 71.5pts (+166.4%) in 2019
- 10/39 (25.6%) for 39.1pts (+100.3%) on Good ground
- 5/18 (27.8%) for 37.1pts (+206.2%) with 6yr olds
- 5/16 (31.25%) for 50.5pts (+315.3%) at Class 3
- and 3/15 (20%) for 17pts (+113.2%) with LTO winners
…whilst based upon the above, in 2019 over 2m to 2m5f with the word “Good” in the official going description, Ben & Richie are 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) for 58.25pts (+215.7% ROI) with a 52% place strike rate.
And finally, since our pick was a winner LTO just nine days ago, it’s worth noting that Ben has history for turning winners back out quickly and since 2014, his handicappers racing within 10 days of an LTO win are 10 from 15 (66.6% SR) for 25.2pts profit at an ROI of 167.8%…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!