Stat of the Day, 5th September 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.20 Uttoxeter : Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up in rear, effort when not fluent 4 out, soon beaten, jumped left 3 out, no extra)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

4.40 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

You’re Hired @ 5/1 BOG

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…in a 6-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,693 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, just knocking on the door for a winner having been a runner-up in each of his last three starts : a feat not as rare as you’d expect, but more on that shortly. Two of those last three efforts were at Class 3 and he now takes a drop in class to run off the same mark here at a track where he’s 1 from 1, whilst overall he has a win and two places from four runs over today’s trip.

His yard is in decent enough form right now with 2 winners and 2 placers from 6 over the past week, whilst trainer Amanda Perrett’s record in Class 4/5 handicaps here at Salisbury over the last six seasons stands at 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) from runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter generating 17.8pts profit at a healthy ROI of 84.7% and these include of relevance today…

  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 13.3pts (+95.1%) at Class 4
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 16.7pts (+128.4%) from horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.1pts (+101.1%) over the last three seasons
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.2pts (+91%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.2pts (+174.3%) in September…

…whilst over the last three seasons, Class 4 runners with less than three weeks rest are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 5.87pts (+117.3% ROI) including 1 from 1 in September.

Now, I said that runners finishing second three times on the bounce wasn’t as rare as you might expect, well you might not be surprised that I’ve a micro-system based around these runners that I’ve unimaginatively entitled “2-2-2 horses”.  The basic premise of the system is…

…UK handicaps / Class 2-5 / odds of 11-10 to 11-1 / form line of 222 / beaten by a neck to 10 lengths LTO / last ran 6-45 days ago…

Since the start of 2016, there have been 398 such runners, from which there are 91 winners (22.9% SR) generating profits of 78.6pts (+19.7% ROI), including the following at play today….

  • 40/151 (26.5%) for 38.6pts (+25.5%) on the Flat
  • 27/109 (24.8%) for 40.2pts (+36.9%) were beaten by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 23/83 (27.7%) for 37.6pts (+45.4%) ran 11-15 days earlier
  • 14/61 (23%) for 44.6pts (+73.1%) on Good to Soft
  • and 17 from 45 (37.8%) for 45.3pts (+100.7%) dropping down a class

…from which Flat runners beaten by 3 to 10 lengths LTO are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 32.6pts (+116.4% ROI)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on You’re Hired @ 5/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.40 Salisbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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