Stat of the Day, 6th September 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

4.40 Salisbury : You’re Hired @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and switched left over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG

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…in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Soft ground worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 122 in his last three starts, beaten by just a head when collared late on at Chester LTO 6 days ago having possibly had to do too much to get in front from a poor-ish draw. Running off the same mark today, it is hoped that a return to a straight 5f wearing first-time blinkers will enough to eke out a little bit from him today.

To date, his career stats under today’s conditions include…

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 8 at class 4
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 under jockey Richard Kingscote
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs
  • 1 from 1 within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 on soft ground

He’s trained by Tom Dascombe and a quick glance at the Racecards tells you that both trainer and jockey have good records at this venue and as Richard is Tom’s main jockey, it doesn’t take a great leap of faith to guess that as a partnership, they’ve done well here too.

I think that’s pretty much common knowledge, so I won’t bore you by drilling down into those details, we can just take it as read that they go well here individually and as a team.

Tom’s horses are going well enough right now, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) over the past fortnight, but that’s no real surprise as Tom’s one of the trainers included in my “Late Season” trainers to watch. In Tom’s case, I look for 2-4 yr old Flat handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 (I don’t bet outside those prices very often) during August to October.

Over the last four seasons, Tom has so far supplied me with 161 qualifiers, bearing 39 winners (24.2% SR) and 100.7pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today…

  • 37/138 (26.8%) for 115.4pts (+86.3%) off a mark (OR) of 65-100
  • 20/81 (24.7%) for 59.3pts (+73.2%) ridden by Richard Kingscote (who inevitably pops up)
  • 11/48 (22.9%) for 22.4pts (+46.7%) at Class 4
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 56.6pts (+166.4%) here at Haydock
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 26.7pts (+116.2%) over the minimum 5f trip
  • and 5 from 20 (25%) for 9.1pts (+45.5%) this year…

…the figures for 2019 suggest they’re still winning, but the market is slowly cottoning on to this angle, but there was still enough juice in the price available…

…for me to suggest… a 1pt win bet on Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday (and also at BF/PP but non-BOG until 8.00am). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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