Stat of the Day, 7th September 2019

Friday’s pick was…

3.30 Haydock : Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

4.25 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Streamline @ 11/4 BOG

…in the 7-runner, Group 3, Sun Racing Sirenia Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Standard To Slow Polytrack worth £34,026 to the winner…

Why?

This juvenile colt has won two of three starts so far, including 1 from 2 under today’s jockey, Hector Crouch and a win on his only previous run on this track. He was a decent third last time out (14 days ago) when third in a Listed contest looking very much like he needed/wanted today’s extra furlong.

His trainer, Clive Cox, is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past fortnight including 5 from 10 (50%) from his 2yr olds, who are having a very good year overall, winning 17 of 76 (22.4% SR) for 65pts (+85.5% ROI) profit, including…

  • 16/47 (34%) for 19.3pts (41%) at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 7/39 (18%) for 68.2pts (+174.9%) over a 6f trip
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 8.9pts (+30.7%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 81.6pts (+302.2%) using jockey Hector Crouch
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 1.4pts (+15.4%) at Class 1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.82pts (+56.4%) this month alone
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.8pts (+36%) on Polytrack

…whilst sub-8/1 runners racing over 6f are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.5pts (+35.5% ROI)…

Our pick is by Due Diligence, a first year sire whose offspring have already won 19 of 96 (19.8% SR) contests, hitting the ground running and generating 37.6pts profit at an ROI of 39.2%, from which…

  • those last seen 11-20 days earlier are 6/30 (20%) for 31.25pts (+104.2%)
  • and A/W runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.6pts (+28.8%)…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Streamline @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Friday (considerably better price at Bet365 if you’re quick/lucky). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.25 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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