Stat of the Day, 9th September 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

4.25 Kempton : Streamline @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on to lead final 100 yards, won going away)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

3.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Long Call @ 4/1 BOG

…in an 8-runner (was 9), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £3,429 to the winner…


Over the last year, this 6 yr old gelding has finished on the first three home on four of six occasions, winning twice, including a course and distance success here LTO some 32 days ago under today’s jockey, pulling clear as the finish unfolded, yet is only raised 2lbs for that effort, but does drop down in class.

To date he has 2 wins and 3 places from 6 runs on Good to Firm ground, 2 wins and a place from 3 attempts at this 10f trip, he’s 1 from 1 here at Brighton (C&D LTO) and 1 from 1 under jockey Tom Marquand (also C&D LTO).

His trainer, Tony Carroll, is 4 from 13 (30.8%) over the past week and jockey Tom is 6 from 29 (20.7%) in the same period, whilst together they are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 56.5pts (+125.7% ROI) in Flat handicaps this season, including 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.9pts (+222.4%) here at Brighton.

More longer-term, Tony’s Flat handicappers racing over 6f to 1m2f here at Brighton are 39/204 (19.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+49.6% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, including…

  • 34/164 (20.7%) for 92.6pts (+56.5%) from males
  • 35/148 (23.7%) for 147.9pts (+99.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 14/1
  • 22/100 (22%) for 48.7pts (+48.7%) on Good to Firm
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 33.2pts (+67.8%) in 2019
  • 8/38 (21%) for 13.5pts (+35.6%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 20.8pts (+59.4%) in September
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 46.3pts (+140.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 15.1pts (+54%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.4pts (+85.1%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

…from which…males at 9/4 to 14/1 on Good to Firm are 16/62 (25.8% SR) for 68.2pts (+110% ROI) and this includes 8/26 (30.8%) this year, 4/15 (26.7%) using Tom Marquand and 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+333.3%) for Tom this year.

And finally for today, you might be interested to read that Tony Carroll’s LTO C&D winners are 9 from 14 (64.3% SR) for 21pts (+150% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2018, including 2/2 for 5.94pts here at Brighton (and 3 of the 5 losers still made the frame!)…

…all pointing towards… a 1pt win bet on Long Call @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering an extra half point at that time. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.50 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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