Stat of the Day, 11th September 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.00 Catterick : B Fifty Two @ 4/1 3rd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, effort well over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Redarna @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £9,704 to the winner…

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has won six of his last ten outings and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Ascot in July and then over this very course and distance last month.

Those last two runs/wins have moved his record in Flat handicaps on to a very impressive 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+295.8% ROI) profit, with the following conditions of relevance today…

  • 8/17 after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 7/14 in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 6/14 at odds shorter than 7/1
  • 6/13 on Good/Good to Soft
  • 5/10 over trips of 7.5/8 furlongs
  • 4/8 in 2019
  • 4/6 wearing cheekpieces
  • 3/12 here at Carlisle
  • 3/9 going right handed
  • 3/6 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/5 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 at Class 3 (two starts ago)

…and at sub-7/1 odds in 8-14 runner races on Good/Good to Soft after 1-6 weeks rest, he is 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 25.9pts (+323.9% ROI)…

He is trained by Dianne Sayer, who seems to be on a good run here at Carlisle of late, especially with her handicappers racing over 7-9 furlongs at odds of 7/1 and shorter, as these beasts are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 20.76pts (+296.6% ROI) this year alone including 3/4 (75%) for 12.02pts (+300.5%) from LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat isn’t too surprising, though, when you consider that since 2014 at odds of Evens to 7/1, Dianne’s handicappers who won LTO are 20 from 65 (30.8% SR) for 15.1pts (+23.2% ROI) profit, from which there are a myriad of profitable/relevant angles at play today : here’s just a baker’s dozen of them!

  • 17/47 (36.2%) for 24.1pts (+51.3%) from male runners
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 26.8pts (+63.9%) on Good/Good to Soft ground
  • 15/42 (35.7%) for 15.9pts (+37.9%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 9/20 (45%) for 15.16pts (+75.8%) during August to October
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 9.4pts (+40.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 6.72pts (+39.5%) with 1 previous C&D win
  • 7/16 (43.8%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) won over C&D LTO
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%) at Class 3
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 9.34pts (+66.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.64pts (+180.6%) over 7.5 to 9 furlongs
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.92pts (+110.2%) here at Carlisle
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 6.73pts (+56%) this year
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.43pts (+90.4%) in September

To form a composite from the above would dilute the dataset too much, but you could consider just backing 5-8 yr old males on Good/Good to Soft ground, as they are 12/20 (60% SR) for 28.9pts (+144.5% ROI), including 3 wins from 4 (75%) for 6.86pts (+171.4%) from those who won over course and distance last time out…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Redarna @ 3/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet along with Betfair/Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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