Stat of the Day, 12th September 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

4.30 Carlisle : Redarna @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Chased leader, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

6.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner…

Why?

This 3yo colt got off the mark last time out 36 days ago at Yarmouth, when pulling clear by some four lengths over 5 furlongs, suggesting that today’s extra furlong should be within his capability. Winning jockey Pat Cosgrave keeps the ride today after that effort last time.

It’s been pretty quiet at trainer Mick Quinn’s yard of late with just 11 runners over the last seven weeks, but a return of 3 winners (27.3% SR) and 6.47pts (+58.8% ROI) suggests there are few (if any) problems there. Of that 3/11 return, those runners are 2/8 in handicaps, 2/6 over 6f and 2/4 from his 3 yr olds.

He also doesn’t send many out to run on the All-Weather, but since the start of 2017, his Class 5 A/W handicappers are 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 56.75pts profit at an ROI of 177.4%. Now that’s not a large sample size, of course, but if you consider how he got those five winners, you might think that our pick is well suited/placed to run here today, as from that 5/32 record, they are…

  • 5/25 (20%) for 63.75pts (+255%) on Polytrack
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 66.75pts (+303.4%) in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 36pts (+300%) from male runners
  • 3/16 (18.75%) for 48.4pts (+302.7%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 23.6pts (+214.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 11.4pts (+557%) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle…

…and males in 9+ runner fields on poly are 4/10 (40% SR) for 37.95pts (+379.5% ROI), including 3/6 (50%) here at Chelmsford, 2/4 (50%) from 3yrs olds and 1/1 (100%) using Pat Cosgrave…

…who himself is in decent touch right now, having ridden 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the last dozen days, including 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 6.1pts (+55.5% ROI) on fancied (ie 4/1 and shorter) runners, from which…

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.7pts (+124.3%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 2/5 (40%) for 4.17pts (+83.4%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 2/5 (40%) for 1.53pts (+30.6%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 7.94pts (+397%) over a 6f trip…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 at 6.30pm on Wednesday. If you can’t get on, there’s plenty of 11/4 knocking about and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.20 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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