Stat of the Day, 13th September 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

6.20 Chelmsford : Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led, headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 3,  Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £9,338 to the winner…

Why?…

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings, starting with a course and distance win here on Town Moor back in July and culminating in a win under today’s jockey, Dan Tudhope, in Class 3 handicap over this trip at Ripon 17 days ago.

This recent run of form boosts his career record to include the following of relevance today…

• 4 wins and 3 places from 9 in fields of 6-8 runners
• 2 wins and 3 places from 6 over 1m2f/1m2.5f
• 1 win and 1 place from 3 visits to Doncaster
• and a 1/1 return under today’s jockey, Dan Tudhope…

…who has won 13 of 81 (16.1% SR) races at Classes 2 to 4 here at Doncaster over the past four seasons generating profits of 59.6pts at an ROI of 73.6%.

Dan is definitely more active and more well known on the racing scene than trainer Chris Fairhurst, but from a small string of horses he has done well when travelling the 90 minutes south from his Middleham base with 6 winners from 27 (22.2% SR) producing profits of 57.6pts (+213.4% RO) here at Doncaster over the past five seasons, from which…

• those with less than 3 weeks rest since they last ran are 6/12 (50%) for 72.62pts (+605.2%)
• 3 to 6 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 26.58pts (+132.9%)
• those racing in fields of just 4-7 runners are 4/8 (50%) for 21.81pts (+272.6%)
• those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 3/5 (60%) for 10.03pts (+200.6%)
• Class 3 runners are 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.89pts (+181.4%)
• in 2019, they are 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
• and those competing for prizes of £8-10k are 2/2 (100%) for 14.89pts (+744.5%)…

…whilst 3-6 yr olds in fields of 4-7 runners after less than 3 weeks rest are 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 22.81pts (+325.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 at sub-7/1 odds, 2/3 this year, 2/2 at Class 3 and 2/2 in races worth £8-10k…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. If you can’t get on, there’s plenty of 5/1 knocking about too and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!