Stat of the Day, 14th September 2019

Friday’s pick was…

6.00 Doncaster : Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Broke well, soon steadied and held up, pushed along and progress 2f out, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG

…in an 8-runner, Class 3,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £9,704 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has finishes 1132 in his four A/W runs to date and was only beaten by a length in a higher grade over this course and distance when last seen seven and a half weeks ago.

His trainer, James Tate has already had a couple of winners this week (wish I had!) and he is 48 from 116 (41.4% SR) for 72.7pts (+62.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 5/1 or shorter in A/W handicaps over trips shorter than 1m2f, including…

  • 28/62 (45.2%) for 49.6pts (+79.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 24.9pts (+67.3%) during August to October
  • 12/30 (40%) for 23.1pts (+77%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.8pts (+115.5%) from those dropping down a class

…with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) producing 10pts (+143.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford during August to October in 2018/19…

…whilst more generally here at Chelmsford, James’ handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter are 19/53 (35.9% SR) for 39.1pts (+73.7% ROI) including…

  • 16/40 (40%) for44.4pts (+111%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+103.5%) this year
  • 9/18 (50%) for 19pts (+105.6%) during August to October
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.2pts (+159.8%) over this 6f course and distance…

…and in 2019 in fields of 6-11 runners, those horses above are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.2pts (+157.7% ROI).

The sharper-eyed amongst you (not sure if many of you actually read my waffle) might notice that both of the above sets of data also apply to James Tate’s runner (Attainment) in the 4.30 race here at Chelmsford, too, but of the two for this column…

…I’m going with… a 1pt win bet on Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.25pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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