Stat of the Day, 17th September 2019

Monday’s pick was…

7.30 Kempton : Celtic Classis @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 4,  Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to firm ground worth £5,693 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has made the frame in five of his last six starts, winning twice and was only beaten by three quarters of a length over this course and distance last time out, 24 days ago : that was in a higher grade than today, so hopefully the drop in class will be to his (and our) advantage.

He has a win and two places from four starts at Class 4, a win and two runner-up finishes from his last three runs on good to firm, he has a win and a runner-up place from two previous visits to Redcar and was a runner-up on the only other occasion that David Nolan rode him.

His trainer David O’Meara is 38 from 151 (25.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+46.9% ROI) in Redcar handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 (where I do most of my betting), from which the following are relevant today…

  • 36/139 (28.1%) for 70.1pts (+50.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 29/92 (31.5%) for 72.7pts (+79%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 43.8pts (+50.3%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 16/45 (35.6%) for 42.5pts (+94.4%) with class droppers
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 37.2pts (+82.7%) with 4 yr olds
  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%) over trips of 8 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.6pts (+50.2%) at Class 4
  • and 10/46 (21.7%) for 16.6pts (+36.2%) over the last three seasons…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG as was available in half a dozen places at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later…

click here for the betting on the 4.00 Redcar

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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