Stat of the Day, 18th September 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

4.00 Redcar : Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up mid-division, headway 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner (was 9 last night!), Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good  ground worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old filly has been the bridesmaid on each of her last two starts, but not beaten by much either time. She went down by a neck 3 weeks ago and then by half a length to a better horse six days ago. Both races were at today’s class and distance and off today’s mark of 74, but Marco Ghiani takes the ride here and his 7lb claim could make all the difference today (especially as her main rival Lady of Aran is now one of the two overnight non-runners).

Trainer Stuart Williams does well turning horses back out quickly and since the start of 2017, his runners racing within a week of their last run are 22/94 (23.4% SR) for 35pts (+37.2% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today…

  • 21/87 (24.1%) for 31.9pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 21/68 (30.9%) for 42.5pts (+62.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 18/62 (29%) for 40.3pts (+65.1%) on the Flat
  • 18/57 (31.6%) for 53.6pts (+94%) in fields of 5 to 9 runners
  • 13/41 (31.7%) for 50.3pts (+122.6%) during July to September
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.2pts (+81.8%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 27.3pts (+59.3%) from 4 to 6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 31.5pts (+121.3%) at the same class & distance as LTO
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7pts (+53.8%) on Good ground
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) here at Yarmouth

…whilst during June to September at odds of 8/1 and shorter in 5-9 runner Flat handicaps, the above 94 runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 35.4pts (+147.3% ROI) profit, from which those racing at the same class/distance as LTO are 5 from 5 for 16.6pts (+332% ROI).

And as the above contains a 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) snippet here at Yarmouth, I’ll finish by mentioning that Stuart Williams’ handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 17/70 (24.3% SR) for 18.3pts (+26.1% ROI) here at Yarmouth over the last six seasons, including…

  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23pts (+120.9%) after a 2nd/3rd place finish LTJO
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 11pts (+60.9%) with females
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.8pts (+77.1%) over this 6f course and distance…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Sky, Hills Betfair & PP at 6.00pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/4 knocking about too, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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