Stat of the Day, 19th September 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

1.40 Yarmouth : Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG (9/5 after a 40p R4!) WON at 7/4 (With leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong to by a length and a quarter)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

3.40 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm  ground worth £18,675 to the winner…

Why?

This in-form three year old filly comes here off the back of three wins on the bounce, all over this trip up at Carlisle with today’s jockey Paul Mulrennan in the saddle for two of the wins. She has now won five of her ten starts and whilst this is tougher, up in class and weight, there’s still a suggestion that she remains ahead of the handicapper. Her suitability for the task ahead is highlighted by her current career achievements that include…

  • 5/8 over 6f, 5/7 in fields of 5-9 runners and 4/8 after less than a month’s rest
  • 4/7 this year, 4/7 in handicaps and 3/5 under Paul Mulrennan
  • 3/5 on Good to Firm, 3/3 at 4/1 and shorter and 1/1 here at Ponty, acquired over course and distance

Her trainer, Michael Dods, has done well with his LTO winners of late with 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) making 40.3pts (+87.6% ROI) over the past 12 months and whilst 46 isn’t a huge sample size, there’s enough there to make some assumptions about Michael’s MO with these LTO winners.

I say this because there are a myriad of profitable angles at play with these 46 runners and I could produce a long list of reasons why this horse is running here today, but I’ll hold back the data geek in me and “just” give you 16 of those angles that are relevant today. So from the original 14 from 46, we have…

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 49.6pts (+150.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 13/29 (44.8%) for 50.5pts (+174.1%) over trips of 6f and shorter
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 34.6pts (+84.3%) on the Flat
  • 12/26 (46.2%) for 36.3pts (+139.6%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 21.9pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 10/18 (55.6%) for 45.6pts (+253.3%) with 2-6 previous distance wins
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 31.1pts (+148.1%) from previous track winners
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 23.8pts (+103.4%) stepping up by a class or two
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 31.05pts (+207%) in August/September
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.2pts (+171.5%) with female runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17.7pts (+118.1%) from previous C&D winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17pts (+113.1%) over a 6f trip
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 11.5pts (+71.6%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.7pts (+31.4%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+210%) at Class 2
  • and last but not least…2/2 (100%) for 8.92pts (+446%) in fillies races

As you can expect, the above can be used as a kind of “pick and mix”, but this does dilute the sample size each time you add another filter. However you might (or equally might not) be interested to know that from the above…

Flat hcps + 5-6f + 5/1 and shorter + <30dslr = 7/8 (87.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+369.7% ROI) and all had at least 1 previous distance win…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday with Bet365 offering a little more, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.40 Pontefract

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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