Stat of the Day, 20th September 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

3.40 Pontefract : Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, headed towards finish : the second time in as many days that the winner, Lady of Aran, has done us over after her withdrawal yesterday cost us a 40% reduction in winnings!)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Raashdy @ 4/1

…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has been placed in each of his last three outings (albeit all over hurdles), winning once and now returns to the All-Weather, where he has run the majority of his races to date, winning 6 of 26 (23.1% SR) for profits of 36.25pts (+139.4% ROI), from which he is…

  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) at trips of 1m2f and beyond
  • 4/16 (25%) for 26.7pts (+166.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%) at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.33pts (+138.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2 (where I think we’ll be today)
  • 3/20 (15%) for 2.52pts (+12.6%) on Tapeta
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 27pts (+207.4%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 40.6pts (+368.6%) wearing no headgear
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 46.9pts (+938%) after 10 or fewer days rest.

He is trained by Sam England, who is 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 35.9pts (+170.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 when her only runner at a track was a handicapper sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter…

…whilst in that same 2016-19 time frame, her handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1, 6 to 14 days after a top 3 finish are 13/37 (35.1%) for 20.7pts (+56%), including…

  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.58pts (+135.8%) beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.25pts (+191.7%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.6pts (+280%) on the all-weather…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 4/1 as was available from Betfair, Betfred, Hills, Paddy Power & Totesport (all non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.50 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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