Stat of the Day, 21st September 2019

Friday’s pick was…

5.50 Newcastle : Raashdy @ 4/1 6th at 5/1 (Mid-division, driven and outpaced on outside 3f out, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace, never able to challenge)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is in decent enough form right now, having two wins and a place from her last five starts, including a very comfortable three length success over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago.

Today’s jockey, 7lb claimer Ellie MacKenzie has already ridden five winners from sixteen (31.25% SR) rides for trainer Heather Main generating profits of 84.9pts (+530.7% ROI) and whilst it’s clear that the P/L and ROI are skewed by some big-priced winners, the strike rate rate is excellent and includes…

  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 59.7pts (+746.4%) on the Flat
  • 3/6 (50%) for 65.25pts (+1087.5%) during August-November
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 29.2pts (+730%) at Class 4

…once again the above caveat re: high prices applies….

It’s also around the later stages of the season that Heather Main does well with her lower grade runners, as over the last four (including this one) Flat seasons, her Class 4 to 6 handicappers are 11/59 (18.6% SR) for 106.6pts (+180.6% ROI) during July to September, including of note today…

  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 79.8pts (+61.8%) at 6-60 days since their last run
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 16.2pts (+43.9%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 63.8pts (+219.9%) with female runners
  • 7/25 (28%) for 71pts (+284%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 37.1pts (+206.1%) at 7/7.5 furlongs
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 17.2pts (+122.7%) here at Newbury
  • 3/21 (14.3%) for 42.9pts (+204.4%) at Class 4
  • and 3/14 (21.4%) for 51.6pts (+368.2%) in 2019…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Unibet, Paddy Power & Betfair (last two are non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.15 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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