Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

5.15 Newbury : Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG 8th at 8/1 (In touch, weakened 2f out)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG

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…in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner…

Why?

Firstly, a quick apology : I’m a bit later than normal adding my notes this morning. As some of you might know, aside from my work here at Geegeez, I also run an independent travel agency, so in the light of Thomas Cook’s sad overnight demise, I’ve been a little tied up, but my notes were written late last night anyway, I just needed to type them up as follows…

Here we have a 6yr old gelding who was a runner-up when last seen 12 days ago off this mark (63) in a higher grade contest than this. All his five career wins have been over this 6f trip, four of which have been in low value (sub-£3.5k) races and he’s manages two wins and two places from seven starts under today’s jockey Connor Beasley, who has a good record here at Hamilton.

Trainer Karen McLintock is 5 from 22 (22.7% SR) for 18.3pts (+83.2% ROI) over the last three seasons with her handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter here at Hamilton, including 4 from 14 (28.6%) for 12.65pts (+90.4%) with 5/6 yr olds.

Over the last four seasons, Karen has also had a decent record with her class dropping handicappers and those sent off at odds of Evens to 11/1 in non-NH races during that period are 13/35 (23.6% SR) for 37.9pts (+68.8% ROI) from which…

  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 23.6pts (+124.1%) at Class 6
  • 4/8 (50%) for 10.2pts (+127.4%) with 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 21.5pts (+269.1%) within a fortnight of their last run

Meanwhile over the same four season period, Karen’s Late Summer (ie Jul-Sept) Flat handicappers are 6/32 (18.75% SR) for 12.5pts (+38.9% ROI) when sent off in the 7/4 to 15/2 odds range.

And finally for today regarding Karen McLintock’s 2016-19 record, when her only runner at a track has been a handicapper in the broad Evens to 12/1 price range, she has had 24 winners from 118 (20.3% SR) for 41.8pts (+35.4% ROI) profit, including…

  • 21/105 (20%) for 39.9pts (+38%) as her only runner anywhere that day
  • 6/24 (25%) for 24.9pts (+103.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 5/20 (20%) for 20.8pts (+104%) in a 6f race with her only runner of the day

But before I go, I just want to revisit my statement that jockey Connor Beasley rides this track quite well. There’s no need to take my word for it, the numbers also stack up, as he’s 14 from 70 (20% SR) for 60.1pts (+85.9% ROI) in Class 4-6 handicaps here over the last three seasons…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet3654 & SkyBet at 8.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.30 Hamilton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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