Stat of the Day, 24th September 2019

Monday’s pick was…

2.30 Hamilton : Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good To Firm ground worth £9,747 to the winner…

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding has won each of his last four starts (2 over hurdles and 2 over fences) and although he is up 9lbs for a win at Cartmel over this trip LTO 29 days ago, he did win very comfortably by 9 lengths that day and now drops back in class.

The third placed horse that day, Angel of Harlem, was 12 lengths off the pace, yet she has since turned back out to land a Class 3 chase over 3 miles at Uttoxeter by 10 lengths off a mark just one pound lower than our boy runs off today.

His handicap strike rate is excellent at 25.7% via a 9 from 35 record and contains of relevance today…

  • 66.6% (2/3) at this trip
  • 57.1% (4/7) with blinkers and a tongue tie
  • 40% (4/10) with the tongue tie
  • 36% (9/25) at 5-35 days since last run
  • 35.3% (6/17) with blinkers
  • 33.3% (8/24) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 32% (8/25) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 27.3% (3/11) under jockey James Bowen
  • 26.3% (5/19) on Good ground
  • 26.1% (6/23) at 2m7f and beyond
  • 23.5% (4/17) at Class 3 or better
  • and 21.7% (5/23) over fences

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose handicap chasers are 39 from 210 (18.6% SR) for a very creditable 74.3pts (+35.4% ROI) blindly backed over the last three “summers” and I use that word lightly and refer to the May-September period. Of the 210 runners, the following are of note today…

  • 36/179 (20.1%) for 90.8pts (+50.7%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 36/176 (20.5%) for 96pts (+54.5%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 32/168 (19%) for 75.8pts (+45.1%) on Good or Good to Firm
  • 29/150 (19.3%) for 69.5pts (+46.3%) with a tongue tie
  • 28/137 (20.4%) for 87.5pts (+63.9%) beyond 2m6f
  • 17/88 (19.3%) for 40.4pts (+46%) with blinkers
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 23.7pts (+51.4%) with LTO winners
  • and 13/61 (21.3%) for 31.5pts (+51.6%) with both blinkers and tongue tie

…whilst from those angles…in 5-12 runner, Class 2-4 contests beyond 2m6f, Peter’s Summer Hcp Chasers are 18 from 71 (25.4% SR) for 97.2pts (+137% ROI) wearing a tongue tie, giving us almost 131% of the original profit from less than 34% of the selections and almost quadrupling the ROI.

And for those who like to drill down further, that 18/71 composite above includes…

  • 9/25 (36%) for 45.9pts (+183.6%) in blinkers
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 22.4pts (+149.5%) from LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.3pts (+289.9%) from LTO winners now in blinkers
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 24.3pts (+607.5%) from LTO winners now in blinkers at odds 4/1 to 8/1…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.55pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.50 Warwick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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