Stat of the Day, 25th September 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.50 Warwick : Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG PU at 12/1 (Led 2nd, headed 6th, led 8th, ridden and headed approaching 14th, not fluent 16th, mistake and weakened 4 out, pulled up after 3 out)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

3.15 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground worth £9,487 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old mare making a reappearance after 5 months off the track since winning another Class 3 handicap hurdle at this venue, albeit over a 2f longer trip than today.

That win completed a hat-trick for her and she’s now got three wins and two runner-up finishes from seven efforts over hurdles and these include (based on today’s conditions) form lines of…

  • 22111 in handicaps
  • 22111 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 24111 on Good ground
  • 211 under jockey Connor Brace
  • 11 at Class 3
  • and 21 here at Perth

Despite being based almost 400 miles away in the Cotswolds, trainer Fergal O’Brien has an excellent record on this track with 29 winners from 108 (26.9% SR) generating 36.8pts (+34% ROI) profit, including of relevance today…

  • 28/81 (34.6%) for 61.8pts (+76.3%) at odds of 5/4 to 9/1
  • 27/94 (28.7%) for 40.9pts (+43.6%) in races worth less than £11k
  • 21/70 (30%) for 27.3pts (+39%) during 2016-19
  • 20/69 (29%) for 39.9pts (+57.8%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 19/75 (25.3%) for 38.7pts (+51.6%) in handicaps
  • 11/47 (23.4%) for 26.6pts (+13.8%) over hurdles
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 29.3pts (+81.3%) at Class 3
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 23.3pts (+97%) with female runners
  • 9/31 (29%) for 21.6pts (+69.7%) during August to September
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.5pts (+55.4%) from LTO winners
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.8pts (+92.2%) with runners not raced for 3 months or longer
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.4pts (+174.9%) with Connor Brace in the saddle…

…whilst during 2016-19 in 7-14 runner Class 3/4 handicap hurdle contests worth less than £11k, Fergal’s horses are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 27.8pts (+214% ROI) when sent off at odds of 5/4 to 9/1 here at Perth and these include 2 from 3 this year, 2 from 2 for Connor Brace and 1 from 1 for Carroll’s Milan…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.15 Perth

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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