Stat of the Day, 26th September 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

3.15 Perth : Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, pushed along after 3 out, went 2nd before 2 out until 2 out, kept on same pace in 3rd)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG

…in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner…


Here we have a 7 yr old gelding well suited to the task ahead who is to be ridden for an in-form jockey riding for an in-form yard that has a good record at this venue. What could possibly go wrong?

Let me briefly add some numbers to the above opening gambit…

  • Jockey Marco Ghiani has 5 winners from 11 in the past week
  • Trainer Stuart Williams is 7 from 28 in the same period
  • and together, they are 11 from 61 (18% SR) for 117.1pts (+191.9% ROI) this year with a 4 from 7 return over the last seven days.

And the yard’s record here at Chelmsford? 45 from 209 (21.5% SR) for 64.3pts (+30.7%ROI) wit runners sent off in the 5/4 to 9/1 price range, including…

  • 39/172 (22.7%) for 74.2pts (+43.1%) over trips of a mile and shorter
  • 37/160 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+35.3%) with male runners
  • 25/101 (24.8%) for 140.1pts (+138.8%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 24/94 (25.5%) for 47.1pts (+50.1%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 64.6pts (+95%) during September to December
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 23.8pts (+50.8%) at Class 4
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 17.6pts (+51.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 13pts (+433.3%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle…

…from which, 3-8 yr olds males in 5-8 runners contests of a mile or shorter are 15/50 (30% SR) for 36.8pts (+73.6% ROI) including 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 7.47pts (+62.2%) at Class 4…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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