Stat of the Day, 27th September 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

7.00 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, soon edged left, stayed on but beaten by a length)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Heavy ground worth £9,338 to the winner…

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner here last time out, landing the odds on what seems to be default soft (or often worse like today) ground here at Haydock (the NW of the country is pretty wet right now yet again!). He was a length clear of the 4th placed and consistent Alemaratalyoum, who has, as recently as Wednesday of this week, since landed a Class 2 contest on heavy ground off a mark 1lb higher than ours today .

Just 3 UK starts today for this French-raised horse, but he does bring some decent (and winning) form on soft/very soft ground and has also proven that the trip is within him.

Stat-wise, we’re going back to the trusted, reliable Tudhope/O’Meara partnership who yet again are having a good year and still continue to produce their winners at prices big enough to beat the bookies, which isn’t often the case with well known angles.

That said the duo are 53 from 274 (19.3% SR) for 85.7pts (+31.3% ROI) for 2019, with the bulk of the runners running on the Flat, where they are 49/247 (19.8%) for 83.1pts (+33.7%). I’ll admit that I knew they had close to a 1 in 5 record this year on the Flat, but I’m amazed that they’re not overbet yet, so it’s still an angle to follow.

If you wanted to be more specific, then of the 247 Flat runners this year…

  • 23/114 (20.2%) for 81.1pts (+71.1%) over 7 to 10 furlongs
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 83.1pts (+32.4%) this month alone
  • 8/38 (21%) for 21.1pts (+55.6%) at Class 3
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36pts (+277.1%) over 7-10f this month
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.4pts (+102%) in Class 3, 7-10f contests

Whilst slightly more generally, David O’Meara continues to enjoy success here at Haydock, where he is still profitable to back blindly, but with today’s race in mind, I just wanted to highlight that over the past four seasons in 6-10.5f handicaps at odds of 5/2 to 9/1 (where we should be today, allowing for some movement), his runners are 9 from 51 (17.7% SR) for 14.4pts (+28.2% ROI), including…

  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 13.8pts (+51.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 13.2pts (+77.4%) at Class 3
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 14.37pts (+95.8%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 12.3pts (+136.5%) in September
  • and 1/4 (25%) for 0.38pts (+9.5%) on Heavy…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of 9/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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