Stat of the Day, 28th September 2019

Friday’s pick was…

5.10 Haydock : Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

8.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Red Stripes @ 9/1 non-BOG until morning

…in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a very consistent (although not entirely prolific) 7 yr old gelding who arrives here having made the frame in 8 of his last 10 starts.

He was 3rd last time out, when beaten by 2 lengths in a Class 5 handicap on Good to Soft at Chepstow 16 days ago, a head in front of the 4th placed Pettochside, who his since anded another Class 5 Flat handicap, so I’m hoping the form pans out for our boy who now takes a drop in class on his return to the All-Weather, where he has won 9 of 81 contests.

His 9/81 A/W record includes of relevance today…

  • 9/75 in handicaps
  • 7/65 over 5f
  • 7/64 going left handed
  • 7/63 in blinkers
  • 6/35 on Polytrack
  • 6/25 at Chelmsford
  • 5/20 over course and distance
  • and 3/6 under today’s jockey Seamus Cronin

His trainer, Lisa Williamson is also far from prolific if truth be told, but like pretty much most trainers, there is a niche where she does far better than her overall record would suggest. In Lisa’s case, I look for the following filters to be in place…

…4-7 yr olds / Chelmsford / Class 3-6 handicaps / 5-7 furlongs / odds of 8-1 and shorter…

And such runners are 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 23.2pts (+85.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 and all of them are males, whilst…

  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 27.2pts (+118.3%) were running at 4-20 dslr
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.3pts (+88.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.78pts (+139.7%) with class droppers
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.07pts (+27.9%) from Red Stripes
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for11.57pts (+128.6%) were beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 8.7pts (+174%) ran on the Flat LTO

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Red Stripes @ 9/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Friday with plenty of 17/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.20 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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