Stat of the Day, 30th September 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

8.20 Chelmsford : Red Stripes @ 9/1  WON at 6/1 (Made all, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely to win by three parts of a length)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

2.00 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning

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…in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5½f on Soft ground worth £3,429 to the winner…

Why?

This 2yo Colt was a winner last time out when clear by two lengths over 5f in a Class 4 contest. 7lb claimer Ellie MacKenzie was riding him for the first time that day and she keeps the ride on a horse that could well look lightly treated off a mark of 71 in a contest that looks far less competitive than the volume of entrants would suggest.

When I was compiling my shortlist (as per my reply in part 2 of SQF), this horse kept cropping up in various reports, so as to not bore you all into submission, I’ll briefly highlight five angles that suggest we might at least get a decent run for our hard-earned money (yes, I actually back these runners too!).

So, in order of decreasing sample size…

1. Since the start of 2015, trainer Heather Main is 20 from 113 (17.7% SR) for 115.9pts (+102.6% ROI) when her only runner of the day is a handicapper racing at a venue just 20 to 100 miles from base.

2. And since the start of 2016, Mrs Main’s handicappers dropping down 1 class from LTO are 14 from 64 (21.9% SR) for 176.2pts (+275.4% ROI) and these include 8 from 32 (25%) for 75.5pts (+235.9%) from those with less than three week’s rest since that higher grade outing.

3. Whilst over the last three seasons, Heather’s Class 5 Flat handicappers are 11/47 (23.4% SR) for 36.6pts (+77.9% ROI), from which…

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 14.3pts (+62.2%) at Evens to 6/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 24.3pts (+405%) on Soft ground
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 7.45pts (+745%) at Evs to 6/1 on Soft

4. And also over the last three season’s Heather’s “late summer handicappers” ie Flat + July-September @ 8/1 and shorter are 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 19.9pts (+47.3% ROI), including…

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.8pts (+92.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.1pts (+301.8%) on Soft ground
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 16.6pts (+803%) on Soft at Class 5

5. And finally for today, jockey Ellie MacKenzie is 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 82.9pts (+460.6% ROI) when riding for Heather Main, including 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 57.71pts (+577.1%) on the Flat…

…all of which led me to… a 1pt win bet on Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.00 Bath

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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