Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

2.20 Ayr : Tai Sing Yeh @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 15/2 (Towards rear, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened and eased down)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.45 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Day of Roses @ 7/2 

…in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £4,614 to the winner…

Why?…

The Twiston-Davies horse in the race means we should get some value from our pick today and with the fav maybe needing a run, there’s no reason why we can’t have a winner here with a 10yr old gelding who has won 4 of 12 starts over fences, doesn’t lack stamina (2 wins at 3m2f and one at 3m4.5f), copes with left handed tracks (2 from 6) and despite being 10 yrs old, has won twice this year already.

He is trained by Joanne Foster, whose NH handicappers are 16 from 60 (26.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+79.9% ROI) since 2012 when sent off at odds of Evens to 8/1 on ground deemed Soft or “worse”, including of relevance today…

• 16/43 (37.2%) for 63.1pts (+146.8%) at 11-45 days since they last ran
• 13/48 (27.1%) for 37.6pts (+80%) over fences
• 9/28 (32.1%) for 24.1pts (+86.1%) at Class 4
• 7/20 (35%) for 39.45pts (+197.25%) aged 10 or older
• 6/11 (54.5%) for 27.93pts (+253.9%) in 2018/19
• 4/12 (33.3%) for 26.92pts (+224.3%) at trips of 3m-3m1f
• and 3/7 (42.9%) for 14.75pts (+210.8%) with today’s jockey Henry Brooke (who cost me a few quid yesterday, but that’s another story) in the saddle

….whilst Joanne’s Class 4 chasers in the mud at 11-45 dslr are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 28.6pts (+238.3% ROI), including 3 from 3 for 15.18pts (+506% ROI) since the start of 2018…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Day of Roses @ 7/2 as was offered by SkyBet, SportPesa & Bet365 at 5.45pm on Tuesday, although the first two won’t be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 1.45 Bangor

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!