Wednesday’s pick was…
1.45 Bangor : Day of Roses @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 8/1 (In touch, headway 6 out, effort after 3 out, no extra approaching last)
Thursday’s pick runs in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG
…in an 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner…
Well, we’ve an in-form 4 yr old filly making a Polytrack (and A/W for that matter) debut off the back of two wins from her last three runs. Those wins came on Good to Firm ground and then on Soft/Heavy, so she’s clearly very adaptable to going conditions.
She has three career wins to date, from which…
- all 3 were in fields of 8-11 runners
- all 3 were at Class 4/5 (1 x C4 & 2 x C5)
- 2 were over trips beyond a mile
- 2 were after less than 4 weeks rest
- 2 were whilst wearing a hood
- and 2 were at odds of 5/1 and shorter
Her jockey today, Jamie Spencer aka Mr Marmite, is also in sparkling form right now, with 20 placed finishes (44.4%) from 45 rides over the last 30 days, winning on 10 occasions (22.2% SR) generating 16.5pts profit from the winners at an ROI of 36.7%.
Jamie has also been pretty successful at this venue, both as Great Leighs and now under the Chelmsford City name, including 13 wins from 36 (36.1% SR) for 8.76pts (+24.3% ROI) profit when racing over 7 to 14 furlongs on horses sent off at 5/1 and shorter since the start of 2017, from which…
- 9/19 (47.4%) for 13.3pts (+70.2%) on horses last seen 6-25 days earlier
- 8/13 (61.5%) for 15.4pts (+118.5%) at Class 5
- and 6 from 7 (85.7%) for 13.3pts (+189.4%) on Class 5 runners returning from a 6-25 day break.
Our trainer today, David O’Meara, has a decent record of late when switching turf runners to the A/W for the first time with 15 winners from 81 such runners (18.5% SR) for 99.4pts (+122.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2017 and these include…
- 14/66 (21.2%) for 75pts (+113.6%) at Classes 4-6
- 11/62 (17.7%) for 48.5pts (+78.2%) at 6-45 days since last run
- 10/26 (38.5%) for 24.4pts (+93.8%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
- 8/39 (20.5%) for 52.3pts (+134.2%) during August-October
- 7/36 (19.4%) for 50pts (+138.8%) at Class 5
- and 2/5 (40%) for 36pts (+720%) from LTO winners…
…whilst those racing at Classes 4-6 at odds of 7/1 and shorter after a break of 6-45 days are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 26.7pts (+166.6% ROI) including 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.66pts (+158.3%) during August to October…
…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Wednesday, although the first two won’t actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!