Stat of the Day, 3rd October 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

1.45 Bangor : Day of Roses @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 8/1 (In touch, headway 6 out, effort after 3 out, no extra approaching last)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG 

…in an 11-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner…  

Why?

Well, we’ve an in-form 4 yr old filly making a Polytrack (and A/W for that matter) debut off the back of two wins from her last three runs. Those wins came on Good to Firm ground and then on Soft/Heavy, so she’s clearly very adaptable to going conditions.

She has three career wins to date, from which…

  • all 3 were in fields of 8-11 runners
  • all 3 were at Class 4/5 (1 x C4 & 2 x C5)
  • 2 were over trips beyond a mile
  • 2 were after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 2 were whilst wearing a hood
  • and 2 were at odds of 5/1 and shorter

Her jockey today, Jamie Spencer aka Mr Marmite, is also in sparkling form right now, with 20 placed finishes (44.4%) from 45 rides over the last 30 days, winning on 10 occasions (22.2% SR) generating 16.5pts profit from the winners at an ROI of 36.7%.

Jamie has also been pretty successful at this venue, both as Great Leighs and now under the Chelmsford City name, including 13 wins from 36 (36.1% SR) for 8.76pts (+24.3% ROI) profit when racing over 7 to 14 furlongs on horses sent off at 5/1 and shorter since the start of 2017, from which…

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 13.3pts (+70.2%) on horses last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 15.4pts (+118.5%) at Class 5
  • and 6 from 7 (85.7%) for 13.3pts (+189.4%) on Class 5 runners returning from a 6-25 day break.

Our trainer today, David O’Meara, has a decent record of late when switching turf runners to the A/W for the first time with 15 winners from 81 such runners (18.5% SR) for 99.4pts (+122.7% ROI) profit since the start of 2017 and these include…

  • 14/66 (21.2%) for 75pts (+113.6%) at Classes 4-6
  • 11/62 (17.7%) for 48.5pts (+78.2%) at 6-45 days since last run
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 24.4pts (+93.8%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 52.3pts (+134.2%) during August-October
  • 7/36 (19.4%) for 50pts (+138.8%) at Class 5
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 36pts (+720%) from LTO winners…

…whilst those racing at Classes 4-6 at odds of 7/1 and shorter after a break of 6-45 days are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 26.7pts (+166.6% ROI) including 4 from 8 (50%) for 12.66pts (+158.3%) during August to October…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Wednesday, although the first two won’t actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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