Stat of the Day, 4th October 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

7.00 Chelmsford : Ventura Royal @ 9/2 BOG 11th at 8/1 (Led, edged left after 2f, headed over 1f out, soon weakened)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

4.00 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3 

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4f on Soft/Heavy ground worth £7,083 to the winner…

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding comes here seeking to complete a hat-trick, albeit 111 days since his last outing. Prior to the break, he completed back to back wins at Carlisle (C4, 2m1f on heavy) and then his last run was here over this class, course and distance under today’s jockey, Billy Garritty who steered him to a comfortable 9 length success.

He is 4 from 17 over hurdles, including 8 places (inc 3 wins) on soft/heavy and he has a win and a place here at Hexham from two runs and the same record under today’s jockey.

His trainer, Micky Hammond is 24 from 85 (28.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+25.3% ROI) since 2013 with his LTO winners sent off at 10/1 or shorter in hurdles contests, including…

  • 17/62 (27.4%) for 6.33pts (+10.2%) when using the same jockey as LTO
  • 16/68 (23.5%) for 24.1pts (+35.5%) at odds of 15/8 to 10/1
  • 16/53 (30.2%) for 14.9pts (+28.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 4.48pts (+13.6%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 12.3pts (+55.9%) over 2m4f to 2m5f
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 19.8pts (+104%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 21.5pts (+82.6%) with runners returning from a 1 to 5 month break
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.62pts (+60.1%) at the same class and distance as LTO
  • and 6/14 (42.9%) for 5.84pts (+41.7%) here at Hexham…

…whilst his overall record at Hexham with his handicap hurdlers stands at 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 28.6pts (+54% ROI) since the start of 2017 and these include of relevance today…

  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 48.1pts (+178.2%) from 7-10 yr olds
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 60.5pts (+377.9%) when using a jockey claiming 5lbs or more
  • 8/20 (40%) for 18pts (+90%) at sub-7/1 odds
  • 3/15 (20%) for 21.6pts (+144%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 2/8 (25%) for 0.6pts (+7.5%) from LTO winners
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.94pts (+58.8%) from former C&D winners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 13.55pts (+271%) with Billy Garritty in the saddle…

…whilst 7-10 yr olds sent off shorter than 7/1 with a jockey claiming 5lbs or more are 6 from 7 (85.7% SR) for 19.3pts (+276.1% ROI), including Only Orsenfoolies last run…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3  as was offered by SkyBet & Hills at 5.40pm on Thursday, although they won’t actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 4.00 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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