Sat TV Trends: 5th Oct 2019

This weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket, Ascot and Redcar to take in seven LIVE races.

At Redcar we’ve got the Two-Year-Old Trophy as their feature contest, while at Newmarket the Group One Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes centre stage – a race the French have won 5 times in the last 17 years. Then at Ascot we’ve four more races that include the Cumberland Lodge and John Guest Bengough Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Challenge Cup Handicap.

Did you know that 15 of the last 17 Cumberland Lodge favourites have been placed?

As always, use these key trends to find the best profiles of recent winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

2.00 – UK Hi-Fi Show Live Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
15/15 – Won over 5f before
14/15 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or shorter
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
11/15 – Rated 101 or higher
10/15 – Had won between 3-7 times before
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Yet to win at Listed or better class
7/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/15 – Irish bred
3/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Winning favourites
Intense Romance (11/1) won the race in 2018
11 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1

 

2.35 – Property Raceday Targets £3M Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

16/17 – Finished fourth or better last time out
15/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Won at Listed or better class before
12/17 – Had raced at the course before (6 won)
10/17 – Winning distance 1 ¾ lengths or more
10/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Had won 4 or more times before
8/17 – Favourites to win
6/17 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Ridden by Martin Dwyer
1/17 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 11 winners came from draws 8 or lower
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Laraaib (11/2) won the race in 2018
Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

 

3.10 – bet365 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/17 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races
14/17 – Won over 7f previously
12/17 – Had raced within the last 30 days
12/17 – Raced at Ascot previously
11/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/17 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/17 – Raced 7 or more times that season
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/17 – Raced at Ayr last time out
4/17 – Favourites to win
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Won their previous race
0/17 – Filly or mare winners
The last 10 winners were aged 6 or younger
7 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
5 of the last 11 horses from stall 10 were placed in the top 4
4 of the last 11 horses from stall 11 were placed in the top 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Raising Sand (5/1) won the race in 2018 and was third in 2017

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Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newmarket

 

3.40 – John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV4

11 previous runnings
11/11 – Won over 6f previously
11/11 – Officially rated 100 or higher
10/11 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/11 – Won 4 or more times previously
9/11 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/11 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
6/11 – Raced 6 or more times that season
5/11 – Won their previous race
3/11 – Returned a double-figure price
3/11 – Favourites to win
2/11 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
Horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 8 runnings (3 wins)
Horses from stall 5 and 7 have won 5 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Projection (2/1) won the race in 2018

 

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.40 – British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Didn’t win last time out
3/3 – Won just once before
3/3 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
3/3 – Favourites placed in the first three
2/3 – Had won over 1m2f before
1/3 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 9/2

2.15 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Carried between 8-4 and 8-11 in weight
4/4 – Rated between 79-85
4/4 – Foaled Feb or later
3/4 – Won from a double-figure draw
3/4 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
3/4 – Won just one before
3/4 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
3/4 – First 3 home came from double-figure draws
3/4 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
0/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 8/1


3.25 –
Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/15 – Previous Group winners
12/15 – Won between 3-5 times before
12/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Rated between 113 and 119
10/15 – Previous Group One winners
8/15 – Aged 3 years-old
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
5/15 – French-trained winners
5/15 – Raced at Deauville last time out
4/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 3)
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The last 12 winners came from stalls 9 or lower
Horses from stall 1 have won 4 of the last 13 runnings
Laurens (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1


Redcar Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

2.55 – Racing TV Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
12/17 – Had won 1 or 2 previous races
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
9/17 – Foaled in March or later
9/17 – Had won over 6f before
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Filly winners
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/17 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/17 – Trained by Stan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

 

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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