Stat of the Day, 5th October 2019

Friday’s pick was…

4.00 Hexham : Only Orsenfoolies @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, headway from 2 out, in 4th before last, left 3rd soon after last, no impression )

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.25 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Included @ 7/2 BOG 

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2mf on Good ground worth £4,289 to the winner…

Why?

Here we have a 7yr old mare making a yard debut for Dr Richard Newland, who despite not frequenting Fontwell too often is still 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 1.5pts (+16.6% ROI) with his handicap chasers at this venue since 2012, including 4 from 6 with 6/7 yr olds, 2 from 3 on Good ground and 1 from 1 in October.

He also does very well with horses having their first start for him, especially those fancied by the market, as those sent off at odds ranging from 5/4 to 11/2 are 39 from 102 (38.2% SR) for 41.8pts (+41% ROI), including the following dozen relevant & profitable angles at play today…

  • 36/84 (42.9%) for 47.7pts (+55.6%) at Class 4/5
  • 35/83 (42.2%) for 46.2pts (+55.6%) over trips of 2m-2m6.5f
  • 22/49 (44.9%) for 32.5pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 21/55 (38.2%) for 19.4pts (+35.3%) at Class 4
  • 19/48 (39.6%) for 19.1pts (+39.8%) with his only runner of the day
  • 19/45 (42.2%) for 26.4pts (+58.7%) were unplaced LTO
  • 16/47 (34%) for 11.4pts (+24.2%) with Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle
  • 14/31 (45.2%) for 21.3pts (+68.9%) with those rested for less than two months
  • 14/30 (46.7%) for 19.5pts (+65.1%) from those with 20-45 previous career runs
  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 1.17pts (+6.9%) in Novice contests
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 4.11pts (+29.4%) over fences
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.7%) during September/October

I found the stat very interesting about him giving a debut to those who had already been around the block several times, as I’m not sure very many trainer could match that kind of record (perhaps I’ll research that today?), but all of the above details have…

…steered me towards… a 1pt win bet on Included @ 7/2 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Friday, although the last two won’t actually be BOG until midnight. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.25 Fontwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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