Stat of the Day, 8th October 2019

Monday’s pick was…

3.20 Stratford : Black Buble @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Held up in rear, took keen hold, ridden and in touch after 2 out, no impression, well held last bend)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

5.15 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Toni’s A Star @ 7/1

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

This 7 yr old mare was a winner here at class, course and distance two starts ago on her last turf outing (runner-up LTO on the Tapeta at Newcastle and unlucky in running) and although she’s 4lbs higher than that last win, today’s jockey Angus Villiers more than makes up for it with his 7lb claim, as he seeks to improve upon his 2 from 7 record already this month.

By sheer quirk of fate, we’re back with yesterday’s trainer, Tony Carroll, albeit at a different code, but he does have a decent record here at Brighton (actually much better than that at Stratford, but that’s another matter) with 50 winners from 283 (17.7% SR) runners here over the last six (inc. this one) seasons generating blind profits of 65.6pts at a decent ROI of 23.2%.

Now I rarely (if ever) advise blindly following a trainer at a track and the first filter I’d apply today is to focus purely on handicaps which takes us to 49 from 275 (17.8%) and 71.5pts at an ROI of 26% and these include of relevance/note today…

  • 43/204 (21.1%) for 128.7pts (+63.1%) at odds of 2/1 to 14/1
  • 42/231 (18.2%) for 79.7pts (+34.5%) during June to October
  • 42/223 (18.8%) for 89.5pts (+40.1%) from 4-9 yr olds
  • 34/175 (19.4%) for 55.3pts (+31.6%) from those with a run in the previous 25 days
  • 29/110 (26.4%) for 54.1pts (+49.2%) finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO
  • and 15/74 (20.3%) for 29.6pts (+40%) this year alone.

This then brings me back towards my “Tony Carroll @ Brighton” saved angle in the Geegeez Query Tool, which tells me that backing 3 to 9 yr olds here at 2/1 to 14/1 in June to October has yielded 36 winners from 160 (22.5% SR) for profits of 136.9pts (+85.5% ROI)!

Please note, if you’re looking to replicate my angle, the odds filter can’t be included in the query, it needs to be done manually afterwards, as SP prices aren’t known until after they’ve raced!

The above numbers include 12 winners from 47 (25.5%) for 45.8pts (+97.4%) this year and Toni’s A Star run here two starts ago…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Toni’s A Star @ 7/1 as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.15 Brighton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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