Stat of the Day, 9th October 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

5.15 Brighton : Toni’s A Star @ 7/1 8th at 5/1 (Chased leader until over 1f out, chased leaders, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over f on Good ground worth £7,213 to the winner…

Why?

This 6 yr old mare has run consistently well over hurdles, making the frame in 8 of 10 starts, winning three times. She won last time out 16 days ago, despite coming back from 22 weeks off the track and she has 3 wins and 2 places from 7 in handicaps, 2 wins and 2 places from 5 under today’s jockey Adam Wedge and 2 wins and a place from 3 starts in handicaps under Mr Wedge.

Her trainer, Emma Lavelle, is 32 from 133 (24.1% SR) for 89.4pts (+67.2% ROI) in Class 3-5 NH handicaps during July to January with horses who have had 10 or fewer previous handicap outing and these include…

  • 17/73 (23.3%) for 52.6pts (+72%) over hurdles
  • 16/72 (22.2%) for 53.4pts (+74.2%) at Class 3
  • 13/50 (26%) for 28.9pts (+57.8%) with 6 yr olds
  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 40.4pts (+91.8%) during October & November
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 50pts (+156.2%) with Adam Wedge in the saddle
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 28.8pts (+119.9%) with LTO winners
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 15.4pts (+69.9%) this year
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.28pts (+145.6%) here at Ludlow…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday whilst Betfair/PP were half a point bigger, but won’y go BOG until tomorrow. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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