Stat of the Day, 10th October 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

1.45 Ludlow : Misty Bloom @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway after 6th, one pace before 3 out, not fluent 2 out, modest 3rd last)

Thursday’s pick runs in the…

8.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG or 3/1 non-BOG until morning

…in a 10-runner, Class 4, Fillies A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has finished 121 in her last three outings and was an LTO winner at this class & trip at Wolverhampton 40 days ago. The rest will have done her good and she clearly looks an improving type, whilst her short career so far has already yielded the following of relevance today…

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 in handicaps
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 5 runs this year
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at 10 furlongs and further
  • 2 wins and a place at 5/1 and shorter
  • 1 from 1 with Tom Marquand on her back

Her trainer, Alan King, is 48 from 229 (21% SR) for 94.1pts (+41.1% ROI) since the start of 2016 with LTO winners subsequently sent off at odds in the basic SotD range ie 9/4 to 12/1 and these include…

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 32.3pts (+70.2%) with females
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 31.9pts (+91.2%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 24.7pts (+145.4%) at 1m4f
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 9.38pts (+117.3%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

And as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, it’s worth seeing how Mr King’s runners fare in such contests and a quick dive into the stats show that since the start of 2016 in 3yo+ handicaps over 1m2f and beyond, they are 13 from 41 (31.7% SR) for 36.2pts at a healthy return of 88.3%, including of note/interest today…

  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 39.8pts (+124.4%) at 16-60 dslr
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 34.4pts (+190.9%) as the same class as LTO
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 10pts (+62.5%) at the same distance as LTO
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 28.6pts (+168.2%) over 1m4f
  • 6/12 (50%) for 18.4pts (+152.9%) with LTO winners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.11pts (+50.7%) at Class 4
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 27.7pts (+173.4%) on the A/W
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 22.5pts (+149.7%) from females
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 0.92pts (+10.2%) in female only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.21pts (+102.6%) here at Kempton
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 11.88pts (+594%) ridden by Tom Marquand…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG or 3/1 non-BOG until morning as was offered by (a) Bet365 and (b) Hills & Sky respectively at 5.50pm Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.00 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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