Stat of the Day, 11th October 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

8.00 Kempton : Chicago Doll @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders on inside, went 2nd over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

1.50 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG

…in the 13-runner, Group 3, Cornwallis Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good to Soft ground worth £34,026 to the winner…

Why?

This 2 yr old Colt was only beaten by half a length in the Windsor Castle at Ascot on his only previous start over 5f. Since then, he was a runner-up in the Gr2 July Stakes (only beaten by a short head) and then got back to winning ways via a dominant display at Ripon in a Listed contest over 6f LTO, 46 days ago.

He quickened clear to score comfortably by four lengths that day and this colt by Lope De Vega has proven that he handles varying ground conditions, whilst the drop in trip should be fine after that display at Ascot in the summer. His record on turf includes 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from 5 starts and I’d expect him to go 3 from 6 today,

His trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, has got his horses in really good nick at the latter end of the season as shown by these current form stats…

  • 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) over the last 30 days
  • 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) over the past fortnight
  • and 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) over the last 7 days

Oisin Murphy is set to take the ride today and he is 16 from 50 (32% SR) for 16.54pts (+33.1% ROI) on Saeed bin Suroor trained runners this year, from which…

  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 20.1pts (+59.2%) on Turf
  • 9/20 (45%) for 21.7pts (+108.5%) since the start of September
  • and 6/12 (50%) for 19.4pts (+161.3%) on turf since September 1st…

…whilst more long-term (ie since the start of 2015), the pair are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.4pts (+158.9% ROI) on the Rowley track here at HQ, including…

  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 17.93pts (+137.9%) with male runners
  • 6/12 (50%) for 17.55pts (+146.3%) during September & October
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.9pts (+278%) in 13/14 runner fields
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%) at Class 1, all of which were males in Sept/Oct!

…which all points to… a 1pt win bet on Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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