Sat TV Trends: 12th Oct 2019

This weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket and York to take in seven LIVE races.

At HQ its the second day of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn & Dewhurst Stakes.

Did you know that 14 of the last 17 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9-2 or less and had also raced in the last 2 months?

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy – a race that has seen ALL of the last 16 winners having raced in the last 4 weeks.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.20 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

12/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
11/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won no more than twice before
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/12 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

2.55 – Dubai Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

14/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/14 – Had raced at least twice before
12/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Godolphin winners
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-5
The last 2 winners came from stall 9
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

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3.30 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

17/17 – Raced at least 3 times that season
15/17 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
15/17 – Placed in their last race
13/17 – Won over 7f previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won at least 3 times previously
12/17 – Won their last race
12/17 – Won a Group race previously
10/17 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (6) last time out
10/17 – Won by an Irish-based stable
10/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
8/17 – Favourites that won
6/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/17 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
5/17 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/17 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/17 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/17 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/17 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 4 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

 

4.10 – Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

16/17 – Aged 4 or older
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
14/17 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/17 – Carried 9-2 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/17 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
11/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
10/17 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/17 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/17 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/17 – Had run at the track before
8/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Won by a NH trainer
4/17 – Winning mares
3/17 – Winners from stall 1
3/17 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 18/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

 

 

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.40 – coral.co.uk Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16– Had raced within the last month
15/16 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
13/16 – Foaled in March or later
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/16 – Had never raced at York before
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Unplaced last time out
7/16 – Ran at either Redcar (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Winners from stall 2
4/16 – Filly winners
3/16 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/16 – Ridden by David Allen
The horse from stall 6 has won 4 of the last 9 runnings

3.15 – Smart Money’s On Coral Handicap (96 Plus Race) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just six previous runnings
5/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
4/6 – Aged 3 years-old
4/6 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
0/6 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 8

 

3.50 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
16/16 – Had won at least 3 races before
15/16 – Had run at York before
15/16 – Had won a race over 6f before
14/16 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
12/16 – Aged 5 or younger
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Rated between 92 and 98
9/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
8/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (last 2 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/16 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here – @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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