Stat of the Day, 12th October 2019

Friday’s pick was…

1.50 Newmarket : Platinum Star @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 5/4 (Held up, pushed along over 1f out, never nearer)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

3.05 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Misfits @ 10/3 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £5,783 to the winner…

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year and comes here aiming to continue trainer Lucinda Russell’s recent good form that has seen her land 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the last fortnight.

And in addition to that good recent form, she has also done very well over at Hexham for a number of years with 54 winners from 329 (16.4% SR) yielding 125.5pts profit at an ROI of 38.1% since 2013 and these include of relevance today…

  • 50/303 (16.5%) for 125.5pts (+41.4%) at Class 4/5
  • 48/277 (17.3%) for 139.1pts (+50.2%) with male runners
  • 48/268 (17.9%) for 113.1pts (+42.2%) with 4-8 yr olds
  • 42/233 (18%) for 65.3pts (+28%) in handicaps
  • 32/153 (20.9%) for 129.3pts (+84.5%) in chases
  • 28/154 (18.2%) for 132.1pts (+85.8%) beyond 2m4f
  • 24/112 (21.4%) for 89.7pts (+80.1%) during October/November
  • 20/70 (28.6%) for 118.7pts (+169.5%) on Soft ground
  • and 18/105 (17.1%) for 78.9pts (+75.2%) after a break of 16-30 days…

…whilst 5-8 yr old males in Class 4/5 handicap chases are 24 from 99 (24.2% SR) for 43.3pts (+43.7% ROI), including…

  • 11/39 (28.2%) for 12.5pts (+32.1%) during October/November
  • 8/20 (40%) for 20pts (+100%) on soft ground
  • and 6/14 (42.9%) for 13.8pts (+98.7%) on soft ground during October/November…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Misfits @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 7.50pm on Friday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.05 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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