Stat of the Day, 14th October 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

3.05 Hexham : Misfits @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up, headway 15th, led before mistake last, soon headed, stayed on, just held )

Monday’s pick runs in the…

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Affluence @ 7/1

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner…

Why?

Going to keep it quite short and simple today with this 4 yr old gelding who has been showing some decent form in his last few runs. He finished 112 in three Class 6 handicaps, before not being outclassed in fourth place stepped up to Class 5.

I’m pretty much ignoring his last effort, where he was well beaten at Worcester four weeks ago, as that was a Class 4 hurdle! I suppose it could have helped with the stamina side of things.

He’s now back on the level and dropped back to Class 6, where all three career wins have come and as he’s running off a mark effectively 1lb lower than his last win, I expect him to go well again today.

Trainer Martin Smith’s handicappers dropping in class on the level are 8 from 26 (30.8% SR) for 34pts (+130.7% ROI) profit when sent off at 10/1 or shorter over the last five years and these include of relevance today…

  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.67pts (+169.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 30.6pts (+145.7%) from male runners
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 19.2pts (+147.9%) on the All-Weather
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.77pts (+152.4%) with 4 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 11.36pts (+189.4%) in 2019
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 8.74pts (+124.8%) at Class 6…

…whilst at Classes 5 to 7, 3-6 yr old males on the A/W after being unplaced LTO are 4/8 (50% SR) for 20.9pts (+261.2% ROI)…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Affluence @ 7/1 as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday, but they don’t offer BOG until the morning of racing although you could go BOG with Bet365 for a point less. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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