Stat of the Day, 15th October 2019

Monday’s pick was…

6.25 Wolverhampton : Affluence @ 7/1 4th at 14/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and headway over 3f out, kept on one pace)

Tueday’s pick runs in the…

6.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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X Force @ 3/1

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner…

Why?

This 2yr old gelding has finished 2211 in his four starts to date including perfect returns on the A/W (2 from 2), over 6f (1/1) and over this 6f trip on the A/W (1/1). He has never raced at Class 4, but is also 1 from 1 at Class 3 from winning over 6f at Chelmsford last time out, 45 days ago.

He might have been rested since then, but in his absence, his stablemates have also been running well with Archie Watson saddling up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) already this month including 5 from 14 (35.7% SR) in the past seven days.

Archie’s record here at Kempton is excellent with 34 winners from 150 (22.7% SR) generating 28.6pts profit at an ROI of 19.1% backed blindly since the start of 2017, including…

  • 32/93 (34.4%) for 37.3pts (+40.1%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 14.2pts (+30.8%) at Class 4
  • and 12/29 (41.4%) for 31.2pts (+107.5%) at Class 4 with runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter.

More generally, the yard’s 6f sprinters have fared well too, winning 86 of 384 (22.4% SR) for 35.6pts (+9.3% ROI) with more success on the A/W at 45/202 (22.3%) for 33.4pts (+16.5%) and from this A/W record at 6f…

  • those racing on Poly are 31/130 (23.9%) for 58.2pts (+44.7%)
  • LTO winners are 13/34 (38.2%) for 22.6pts (+66.6%)
  • and LTO winners racing on Poly are 11/28 (39.3%) for 24pts (+85.7%)

And finally for today, it’s worth (IMO) knowing that Archie Watson’s 2 yr olds racing over 5/6 furlongs at odds of 6/4 to 15/2 within 60 days of their last run are 34 from 93 (36.6% SR) for 73.5pts (+79% ROI) during the second half of the calendar year (ie Jul-Dec) and these include…

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 37.4pts (+86.9%) in Nursery races
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 13pts (+54.2%) with Hollie Doyle in the saddle
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 10.14pts (+56.3%) with LTO winners
  • and 5/9 (55.6%) for 20pts (+222.2%) at 31-60 dslr

…whilst Hollie Doyle is 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 11.65pts (+105.9% ROI) in Nurseries…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on X Force @ 3/1 as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.10pm on Monday, but they don’t offer BOG until the morning of racing. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.00 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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