Stat of the Day, 16th October 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

6.00 Kempton : X Force @ 3/1 4th at 11/4 (Took keen hold, held up in mid-division, effort 1f out, unable to get on terms)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.05 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Theflyingportrait @ 5/1 BOG

…in a 10-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7f on Good To Soft worth £7,213to the winner…

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding might be getting on a bit now, but comes here off the back of a win in another Class 3 handicap chase in his last run four weeks (Kelso, 2m1f), taking his tally over fences to a very respectable 9 from 33, including of relevance today…

  • 9/29 in non-Novice handicaps & 8/25 under jockey Sean Quinlan
  • 8/14 at odds of 5/1 max & 7/25 going left handed
  • 6/19 within a month of his last run & 5/9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 5/8 in September/October & 5/8 in Class races worth less than £10k
  • 2/2 here at Wetherby, 2/2 at 1m7f/1m7.5f and 2/2 here over 1m7f/1m7.5f

His trainer, Jennie Candlish, is 35 from 139 (25.2% SR) for 70.3pts (+50.6% ROI) with LTO winners since the start of 2015 and these include of interest here…

  • 33/125 (26.4%) for 75.6pts (+60.5%) in handicaps
  • 33/120 (27.5%) for 66.2pts (+55.2%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 31/106 (29.3%) for 30.5pts (+28.7%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 22/93 (23.7%) for 28.5pts (+30.7%) in NH contests
  • 13/60 (21.7%) for 6.25pts (+10.4%) with Sean Quinlan in the saddle
  • 12/44 (27.3%) for 48.6pts (+110.4%) with previous course and distance winners
  • 11/44 (25%) for 21.3pts (+48.3%) in chases
  • and 8/24 (33.3%) for 39.7pts (+165.5%) with 9-11 yr olds

…with handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter within 45 days of their last run having a record of 28/91 (30.8% SR) for 31.5pts (+34.7% ROI).

And…since 2014, Jennie’s UK handicappers sent off at 6/4 or bigger who not only won LTO but are also former course and distance winners have won 12 of 37 (32.4% SR) for 57.4pts (+155.1% ROI)…

…whilst her handicap chasers priced at 6/4 to 12/1 after winning a handicap chase LTO are 10/32 (31.3% SR) for 30.3pts (+94.7% ROI) since 2015…

…pointing to… a 1pt win bet on Theflyingportrait @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, 888Sport, BlackType & SkyBet at 6.35pm on Tuesday, but the last two don’t offer BOG until the morning of racing, as is the case with Hills who were offering half a point more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.05 Wetherby

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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