Stat of the Day, 17th October 2019

Wednesday’s pick was…

5.05 Wetherby : Theflyingportrait @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Chased leader, led before 3 out, headed next, weakened flat, lost 3rd towards finish)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

5.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 12-runner, Class 5, Nursery for 2yo over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner…


This 2 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring over a mile on the Polytrack at Kempton a week ago. They way he stayed on strongly over the final half furlong suggests there’s more to come and that today’s step up in trip might paint him in an even better light.

He is trained by Richard Hughes and the yard looks to be in good nick right now, with 9 placers from 17 over the past fortnight including 4 winners, whilst the A/W runners have won 3 of 10 with 4 of the 7 losers making the frame.

More long-term, Richard’s runners are 25/92 (27.2% SR) for 40pts (+43.5% ROI) when sent off shorter than 12/1 here at Chelmsford, with the following of relevance today…

  • 19/73 (26%) for 30.9pts (+42.3%) after a break of 6-60 days
  • 19/71 (26.8%) for 41.7pts (+58.8%) in 7-14 runner races
  • 13/42 (31%) for 38.15pts (+90.8%) during August-October
  • 10/27 (37%) for 31.3pts (+115.9%) with 2 yr olds
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 27pts (+90.1%) at trips of 1m/1m2f
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.8pts (+139.7%) in Nurseries
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.92pts (+99.1pts) stepping up in trip by 2-3 furlongs

Now, I know many of you like to see my data subsets combined into a composite angle, so you could take the top three from above ie horses who last ran 6-60 days earlier running in 7-14 runner contests during August to October and that would give you 11 winners from 29 (37.9% SR) for 34.8pts (+120.1% ROI), with the other 4 datasets producing…

  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 29.6pts (+211.3%) at 2 yrs old
  • 4/8 (50%) for 16.82pts (+210.3%) in Nurseries
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.16pts (+372%) over this 1m2f C&D
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.17pts (+608.5%) stepped up by 2-3 furlongs.

And finally for today, a quick look at the jockey booking, which seems positive to me as James Doyle fares really well on these young horses at the sharp end of the market, Numerically, he is 17 from 34 (50% SR) for 14.42pts (+42.4% ROI) on 2 yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1 here at Chelmsford and this record includes…

  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 16.81pts (+62.3%) at Classes 4/5
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.44pts (+34.9%) on LTO winners
  • 3/5 (60%) for 2.86pts (+57.2%) at Classes 4/5 on LTO winners
  • 3/3 (100%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%) on those last seen 1-10 days earlier
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 4.7pts (+156.7%) at Classes 4/5 on those last seen 1-10 days prior…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 5.30 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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