Stat of the Day, 18th October 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

5.30 Chelmsford : Souter Johnnie @ 3/1 BOG 12th at 7/4 (Keen in mid-division on inside, closer chasing leaders over 1f out, hung left and losing place when carried left inside final furlong, eased soon after)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

8.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £5,434 to the winner…

Why?

This 4yr old gelding is running really well right now, finishing 211313 in his last six outings and has to date achieved the following of relevance regarding today’s race…

  • 5 wins, 4 places from 15 in handicaps
  • 5+2 from 14 in a tongue tie
  • 5+4 from 13 in cheekpieces
  • 5+2 from 11 during August to October
  • 5+2 from 9 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4+2 from 9 as a 4 yr old
  • 2+4 from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 8 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 2+3 from 7 with Richard Kingscote in the saddle
  • 2+1 from 4 over trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • and 2 from 3 within a week of his last run

He’s by Animal Kingdom, whose offspring are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 5.01 (+25% ROI) at trips of 1m6f and beyond, including…

  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.01pts (+150.1%) at odds of evens to 4/1
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.21pts (+52.1%) over trips of 2m to 2m1f
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 10.21pts (+204.2%) over trips of 2m to 2m1f at odds of evens to 4/1

And his trainer Tom Dascombe is 14 from 43 (32.6% SR) for 60.2pts (+140.1% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses turned back out after less than a week’s rest, including of note today…

  • 12/35 (34.3%) for 62.9pts (+179.8%) in handicaps
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 17.4pts (+91.8%) with Richard Kingscote in the saddle
  • 5/20 (25%) for 30.78pts (+153.9%) at Class 4
  • 5/5 (100%) for 22.64pts (+452.8%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 3/6 950%) for 12.17pts (+202.9%) on the A/W…

…giving us… a 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Hills at 5.35pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 8.25 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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