Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2019

Monday’s pick was…

7.30 Southwell : Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led, headed over 4f out, tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, rallied to lead again inside final furlong, soon headed)

Tuesday’s pick runs in the…

3.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG

…in a 14-runner, Class 2, Optional Claiming Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £18,675 to the winner…


Tom Tate and Andrew ‘Midge’ Mullen have a great record together. In the last two years, they’ve teamed up for five winners from 21 runners including Monday’s 13/2 scorer, Young Tiger. That brought their two-year record to +20.25 points.

Specifically in Newcastle handicaps over the past five years, they’ve a phenomenal 34.62% win rate (nine winners from 26 runners, five further places, +61.50, A/E 2.48, IV 3.4).

Equiano Springs has been a big part of that success. His career record at Newcastle is 11661221, but when Mullen has steered that form string improves to 11221 (+17.oo).

Ostensibly drawn close to the little pace there is within the high numbers, Messrs. Tate, Mullen and Springs have an excellent chance of adding a fifth course win, and look over-priced to do that…

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy at 5.30pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 3.10 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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