Stat of the Day, 23rd October 2019

Tuesday’s pick was…

3.10 Newcastle : Equiano Springs @ 13/2 BOG 14th at 15/2 (Held up early, pulled hard and soon tracking leader, every chance over 1f out, weakened quickly final furlong)

Wednesday’s pick runs in the…

6.25 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Trouble Shooter @ 7/2 BOG

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…in a 13-runner, Class 5, AW Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m6f on tapeta worth £3479 to the winner…

Why?

Shaun Keightley is a trainer to note. He has shown himself to perform especially well with last time out winners, which is a sign that he gets them started out in handicaps off the right sort of mark (when they have any ability, not all of them do of course).

Take Trouble Shooter for instance. This three-year-old son of Delegator comes here on a five-timer after wins at Thirsk, Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle.

The specifics of that last time out winner record are 9/21 (4 further places). That’s a 43% win and 62% place strike rate, good for 20.83 points profit on the win part (A/E 1.95).

His sire, Delegator, is normally associated with sprinters. But of the 110 runs from his progeny over staying trips in the last two years, he’s proudly watched (metaphorically at least) 18 of them prevail. They have collectively accumulated 85.88 units of profit (A/E 1.36).

Delegators go well on the all weather, too: 50 wins from 399 starts for +72.80 (A/E 1.17).

Keightley has struck up a good relationship with ‘forgotten’ jockey, Josephine Gordon. Together they’ve notched nine winners from 52 runners (+16.83, A/E 1.71), including this lad where they’re unbeaten in four.

If those are positive stats, allow me to offer one negative stat in relation to the favourite as I write, Waterfront. His (excellent) trainer, Simon Crisford, is having a difficult month: just one winner from 37 runners, and all four that were sent off shorter than 2/1 in the past fortnight beaten.

It’s a competitive heat, but I’m not sure today’s pick has finished improving just yet…

…giving us a 1pt win bet on Trouble Shooter @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by William Hill and bet365 at 5.15pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 6.25 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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