Stat of the Day, 25th October 2019

Thursday’s pick was…

8.15 Wolverhampton : Roving Mission @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, led over 5f out, headed over 1f out, kept on well under pressure)

Friday’s pick runs in the…

2.50 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Lady Adelaide @ 9/2 BOG

…in a 9-runner, Class 4, Fillies’ Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on soft ground worth £5208 to the winner…

Why?

Roger Charlton is having a fine end to the season, though his form at his local Berkshire track is permanently top drawer. Let’s start with the Beckhampton handler’s course form.

In the last five years he’s won 20 races at Newbury, from 121 starters (17%, +10.25, A/E 1.22). Two-fifths of those winners came in the last year, from a third of the runners (8/39 to be exact, 21%, +6.63, A/E 1.61).

Recent form is fair flying for Charlton also: 6 from 17 (and a shortie yet to run tonight), +17.6, A/E 1.79 in the past fortnight; and similar numbers (10/32, +17.51, A/E 1.38) for the past month. Those are roughly one-in-three strike rates through the month.

Jockey Jason Watson is also in excellent form with an Impact Value of 2.06, meaning he’s riding more than twice the average number of jockey winners just now. He’s making a profit for those mythical blind backers, too: +31.88 in the last two weeks at a circa 20% win rate.

Lady Adelaide was second at this track on the easy side of good on her career debut. Her sire, Australia, is 16/72 with progeny on soft or heavy ground in the past year (22%, A/E 1.28) and she looks likely to relish conditions.

All of which gives us…

…a 1pt win bet on Lady Adelaide @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by five firms at 5.40pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.50 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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