Stat of the Day, 26th October 2019

Friday’s pick was…

2.50 Newbury : Lady Adelaide @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/2 (Chased leaders on inside, ridden and weakened over 2f out)

Saturday’s pick runs in the…

2.30 Leopardstown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flower Garland @ 11/2 BOG

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…in a 7-runner, Fillies’ Handicap for 2yo over 7f on soft ground worth €18000 to the winner…

Why?

It’s been a frustrating week for which I can only apologise. The stats have been solid, as evidenced (again) when another the Roger Charlton/ Jason Watson horses won at 16/1 at Newbury, the same card at which Stat of the Day sunk on the same afternoon. Sigh.

I have one more attempt to claw a winner back, and it will be in Ireland in a fillies’ nursery. Aidan O’Brien is hardly your average under the radar trainer (!), but incredibly there are still ways to profit from his horses. One of the key approaches I like with APOB is first time in a handicap.

Take Flower Garland for instance: three fair runs in maidens, two of them very early in the season and then the third qualifying run four weeks ago. Just enough time to tighten the bolts ahead of the ‘cap bow.

O’Brien has scored with 20 of the 69 handicap debutants he’s saddled in the past two years. That’a an incredible 29% hit rate, for +56.98 profit (A/E 1.54, IV 2.92). Remarkable numbers for the highest of high profile trainers.

Having had what by his standards is a quiet year – a mere 16.67% win rate in the last 365 days – he seems to be firing on all cylinders now. 58 runners sent out in the two weeks hitherto have yielded 14 winners at a more traditional 24% clip (+27.21, A/E 1.43, IV 2.56)

Aidan seems to rate young Mikey Sheehy who he legs up here. The pair combined for the first time on Tuesday with 10/1 handicap second-timer, Scholastic.

This filly is by Footstepsinthesand out of a Dylan Thomas mare, so she’s bred to stay and ought to handle the ground. Her sire has a 15% win rate on soft and heavy ground across 103 runners in the last two years.

All of which gives us…

…a 1pt win bet on Flower Garland @ 11/2 BOG as was offered by Skybet (BOG), and Paddy /Betfair non-BOG at 6.30pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

click here for the betting on the 2.30 Leopardstown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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