Stat of the Day, 28th October 2019

Saturday’s pick was…

2.30 Leopardstown : Flower Garland @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Soon raced in 4th, pushed along into straight and effort, 3rd inside final furlong, kept on without reaching winner, grabbed 2nd on line)

Monday’s pick runs in the…

5.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG

…in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner…

Why?…

This 2 yr old colt is William Haggas’ only runner of the day and is due to be ridden by Oisin Murphy who is 39/192 (20.3% SR) for 35.1pts (+18.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Kempton in the evens to 10/1 price range since the start of 2017, including of relevance today…

• 23/95 (24.2%) for 44.7pts (+47%) on runners placed in the first three last time out
• 14/63 (22.2%) for 28.7pts (+45.5%) on those last seen 11-20 days earlier
• 12/55 (21.8%) for 19.8pts (+36%) at Class 6
• 9/28 (32.1%) for 29.9pts (+106.8%) from those placed in the first three LTO, 11-20 days earlier
• and 6/15 (40%) for 8.11pts (+54.1%) on 2 yr olds…

…but as the jockey isn’t the main focus here today, we should now take a closer look at the trainer, the esteemed Mr William Haggas, whose own personal records include 22 winners from 81 (27.2% SR) for profits of 13.7pts at an ROI of 16.9% with runners sent off at odds of 5/4 to 5/1 on this track since the start of 2016 and these include of note today…

• 17/53 (32.1%) for 24.5pts (+46.2%) during September to January
• 15/50 (30%) for 13.5pts (+27%) from male runners
• 12/40 (30%) for 14.7pts (+36.7%) from those in the first three home LTO
• 7/26 (26.9%) for 6.4pts (+24.6%) with horses rested for 11-25 days
• 4/8 (50%) for 9.25pts (+115.7%) at Class 6
• and 2/5 (40%) for 4.16pts (+83.2%) with 2 yr olds

…whilst males racing during Sept-Jan after a top 3 finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.3pts (+123.6% ROI) profit. 

Bryn Du has run on Tapeta and Turf so far in his short 5-race career and now tackles Polytrack for the first time, so it’s worth noting that William Haggas’ 2-5 yr olds with 1-6 previous career runs are 66 from 176 (37.5% SR) for 46.2pts (+26.2% ROI) since the start of 2017 when tackling a new A/W surface for the first time, including…

• 64/140 (45.7%) for 59.4pts (+42.5% ROI) at odds shorter than 6/1
• 61/153 (39.9%) for 60.3pts (+39.4%) with horses rested for more than 15 days
• 42/105 (40%) for 30.6pts (+29.1%) with male runners
• 34/99 (34.3%) for 16.9pts (+17%) on Polytrack
• 25/62 (40.3%) for 34.1pts (+55%) in handicaps
• 17/42 (40.5%) for 11.24pts (+26.8%) during October & November
• and 4/8 (50%) for 7.05ptrs (+88.1%) at Class 6

…with males sent off shorter than 6/1 after being rested for more than 15 days winning 38 of 79 (48.1% SR) for 49pts (+62% ROI)…

And finally (!) for today, it might not have been the yard’s plan to have just one runner, but the UK weather has made it that way, but since the start of 2016, when the Haggas yard’s only runner of the day was a handicapper sent off at 7/1 or shorter, they’ve had 25 winners from 72 (34.7% SR) for 25.4pts (+35.3% ROI) profit with the bulk of the success coming on the All-Weather at 20/46 (43.5% SR) for 39.6pts (+86.1% ROI), from which…

• 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.39pts (+114%) over trips of 6-7 furlongs
• 5/11 (45.5%) for 15.66pts (+142.4%) here at Kempton
• and 2/3 (66.6%) for 4.68pts (+156%) at Class 6…

…all of which steered me to…a 1pt win bet on Bryn Du @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, or 11/4 non-BOG from Hills at 4.30pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!